Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's extraterritorial jurisdiction takes a solid step forward with multiple export control measures announced by the Ministry of Commerce [6]. - The technical requirements for new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemptions from 2026 - 2027 are adjusted by three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [6]. - The consumer market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays this year shows good growth momentum, with increased domestic travel spending and consumption revenue [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issue a notice to govern price disorderly competition [7]. - China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October [7]. - On the first trading day after the holiday, the A - share market runs at a high level, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high in more than a decade [7]. - A cease - fire agreement in Gaza is announced by a Hamas official [8]. - A bill to end the US government shutdown proposed by the US Republicans fails to pass in the Senate [8]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Product Price Changes - Chemicals: On October 10, 2025, among various chemical products, glass, coke, and others rose, while crude oil, plastic, etc. fell. For example, glass rose by 0.985% to 1,230.00 yuan, and crude oil fell by 1.444% to 464.20 yuan [4]. - Agricultural Products: On October 10, 2025, among agricultural products, yellow soybean 2, palm oil, etc. rose, while yellow soybean 1, rapeseed meal, etc. fell. For example, yellow soybean 2 rose by 0.138% to 3,637.00 yuan, and rapeseed meal fell by 0.698% to 2,418.00 yuan [4]. 3.2 Main Varieties Morning Meeting Views - Agricultural Products - Peanuts: On October 9, peanut futures closed down 0.85%, showing a downward - breaking trend. With increased supply and weak demand, prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 7600 - 7650 support range [11]. - Sugar: On October 9, sugar futures rose 0.69%. Supported by domestic low inventory and high sales - to - production ratio, prices may continue to rebound in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low prices near the 5500 - yuan support level [11]. - Corn: On October 9, corn futures fell 0.42%. With new grain supply pressure and weak demand, the price is expected to be weak and volatile. Short - term waiting and seeing is recommended, focusing on the 2120 - yuan support [11]. - Pigs: The pig market is under pressure due to concentrated supply release and weakening consumption after the holiday, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - Eggs: After the double festivals, egg prices fall due to slow sales, high inventory, and weak consumption. Futures are recommended to be short - sold, and month - spread reverse arbitrage is the main strategy [11][13]. - Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price is weak. With high supply, weak demand, and increased inventory, the futures price may continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to Indian tender dynamics, macro - impacts, and export changes [13]. - Caustic Soda: On October 9, the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is stable, but inventory increases. The 2601 contract is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the 2400 - point support [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the holiday, the coking coal market has low inquiry sentiment, and domestic mine supply recovers. With stable coke prices and high hot - metal production, they are expected to fluctuate within a range (coking coal: 1050 - 1300, coke: 1550 - 1800) [13]. - Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: On October 9, copper prices rise to a new high this year, and attention should be paid to the pressure at last year's high. Aluminum prices follow the non - ferrous sector, but the increase in inventory after the holiday may put pressure on the premium [13][14]. - Alumina: The supply of alumina is high, and demand is weak, with a surplus in the fundamentals. The 2601 contract is weak, and attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [14]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rise. After the holiday, inventory accumulates, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range (rebar: 3050 - 3200, hot - rolled coil: 3250 - 3400) [14]. - Ferroalloys: After the holiday, the black - series rebounds, but ferroalloys are weak. They are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: On October 9, the lithium carbonate futures price rises slightly. With supply and demand factors, attention should be paid to the 75240 - yuan pressure level. If it breaks through, a small - position long position can be tried [14][16]. - Options and Finance - Options: On October 9, the A - share market has a good start in October. The trading volume and open - interest PCR of 300ETF options and 50ETF options change, and the implied volatility decreases. Trend investors can focus on inter - variety arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can sell wide - straddles to short volatility [15][16]. - Stock Index: After the holiday, the A - share market has a good start, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through the long - term pressure line. In the fourth quarter, policies are expected to be introduced, and the short - term long - trend key is that the futures price does not fall below the 5 - day moving average [18][19].
中原期货晨会纪要-20251010
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-10-10 01:02