生猪日报：期价明显下跌-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the hog price will experience a weak and volatile adjustment. By December, hog slaughter volume may increase monthly, and with sufficient supply, there is limited potential for a significant rise in hog prices. The price difference between 150Kg and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and provide some support for hog prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if this occurs, the hog price is expected to rebound at the end of the year. Consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts at an appropriate time (for reference only) [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On October 9, there were 0 registered hog warehouse receipts. The short - term spot market lacks upward momentum, and attention should be paid to when the spot market shows oversold signals. On the same day, the LH2511 hog futures contract reduced its position by 2,769 lots, with an open interest of approximately 58,300 lots. The highest price was 11,905 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,535 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,595 yuan/ton [2]. - From October 9 to September 30, the national average hog slaughter price dropped from 11.61 yuan/kg to 11.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.29%. In Henan, it dropped from 11.71 yuan/kg to 11.31 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.42%. In Sichuan, it dropped from 11.27 yuan/kg to 11.17 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.89%. The prices of various futures contracts also declined, with the 11 - contract dropping by 6.15%. The main basis in Henan decreased by 200% [5]. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of the number of fertile sows, the hog supply in the fourth quarter may be similar to that in the third quarter. Based on piglet data, the hog slaughter volume in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [2]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in a volatile manner [2]. - The short - side logic in the market includes: the slaughter weight has not decreased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume remains high; September and October are not periods of large consumption increases, so demand has limited support for hog prices. The long - side logic includes: farmers have started to reduce weight, which is beneficial for the future market; consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cold; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited [2]. Strategy Suggestions - The report suggests a weak and volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly. The price difference between 150Kg and standard hogs is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support hog prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if it does, the hog price is expected to rebound at the end of the year. Consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts at an appropriate time (for reference only) [3].