国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251010

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it gives individual ratings for different commodities in the black series: - Iron ore: Bullish consolidation supported by macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Wide - range consolidation, with attention on the electric - arc furnace production cut rhythm [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Wide - range consolidation, with a strong market wait - and - see atmosphere [2][12] - Coke and coking coal: Wide - range consolidation with fluctuating expectations [2][16][17] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][19] 2. Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various black - series commodities. It believes that different commodities are affected by different factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and industry policies, resulting in different price trends and market characteristics. For example, iron ore is supported by macro - expectations, while rebar and hot - rolled coil need to focus on the production cut rhythm of electric - arc furnaces [2][4][7][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures price of iron ore closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (1.28%). The positions of I2601 increased by 12,200 hands. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally rose by 2 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data were not released as scheduled [4]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: The futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,096 yuan/ton and 3,286 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.19%) and 12 yuan/ton (0.37%) respectively. The positions of RB2601 and HC2601 increased. Spot prices generally rose, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [8]. - Macro and Industry News: From January to August, China's industrial enterprise profits increased. The weekly data of steel products showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. For example, in the week of October 8, the production of rebar decreased by 3.62 million tons, and the inventory increased by 23.96 million tons [9][10]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures showed fluctuations. For example, the price of SF2511 decreased by 22 yuan/ton, and the price of SM2511 increased by 26 yuan/ton. Spot prices also changed, with ferrosilicon prices generally decreasing [12][13]. - Macro and Industry News: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were affected by factors such as electricity prices and steel procurement. The export volume of South African manganese ore in August decreased month - on - month [12][14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 38 yuan/ton (3.4%) and 31 yuan/ton (1.9%) respectively. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [17]. - Macro and Industry News: The China Coking Industry Association stated that it had never issued or authorized any "forced production cut" or "joint price increase" notices or initiatives [18]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend for coking coal [18]. Logs - Fundamentals: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the price of the 2511 contract increased by 0.8%, and the trading volume increased by 191.8%. Spot prices of logs in different regions and varieties were relatively stable [20]. - Macro and Industry News: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data were not released as scheduled [22]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [22].