Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, and silver is expected to reach a new high of 50 [2]. - The rise in the US dollar restricts the price increase of copper, while zinc shows a slight rebound, and lead's price recovery is limited by increased inventory. Tin is accelerating upward, aluminum is in a range - bound oscillation, alumina is running weakly, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - For nickel, there is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and attention should be paid to news disturbances. Stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the game between short - term supply - demand and cost factors [2]. - Lithium carbonate is in an oscillating state with accelerating inventory reduction. For industrial silicon, as upstream production resumes, a strategy of shorting at high prices is recommended. For polysilicon, market news has fermented again, and actual implementation should be monitored [2]. - Iron ore is in a strong - biased oscillation supported by macro - expectations. Rebar and hot - rolled coil should pay attention to the rhythm of electric - furnace production cuts and are in a wide - range oscillation. The market for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is filled with a strong wait - and - see atmosphere and is in a wide - range oscillation. Coke and coking coal expectations are fluctuating, and they are in a wide - range oscillation [2]. - Logs are oscillating repeatedly. Para - xylene and PTA are still weak in the medium term. For MEG, a reverse spread strategy for the 1 - 5 month spread is recommended [2]. - Rubber is oscillating strongly, synthetic rubber is oscillating in the short term, and asphalt is following the weak trend of oil prices. LLDPE and PP are expected to be in an oscillating market in the medium term. Caustic soda is suppressed by weak reality but strongly supported by cost. Pulp is oscillating, glass prices are stable, methanol is running weakly, urea is running weakly, styrene is mainly oscillating in the short term without chasing short positions, and the spot market for soda ash has little change [2]. - LPG's cost end is weak, and attention should be paid to the risk of a low - level rebound. Propylene's supply - demand is in a tight balance, and spot prices are supported. PVC is oscillating at a low level. Fuel oil is still weak and entering a short - term adjustment. Low - sulfur fuel oil is temporarily weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. For the container shipping index (European line), a light - position long spread strategy for the 2 - 4 contract is recommended. Short - fiber and bottle - chip are oscillating at a low level in the short term with a weak trend. Offset printing paper is oscillating at a low level. Pure benzene is mainly oscillating in the short term. Palm oil is relatively strong among varieties due to the early B50 road test, while soybean oil is difficult to reach a new high as US soybeans are oscillating. Soybean meal and soybeans are oscillating. Corn should pay attention to the listing of new grains. Sugar is oscillating upward. Cotton's purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton has stabilized. Eggs are running weakly in the spot market. The bottom of the live - hog spot market has not appeared, and the premium of near - month contracts is relatively large. Peanuts still face supply pressure [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold's trend strength is 1, and silver's is also 1. Gold's previous trading day closing price of the Shanghai gold futures main contract was 914.32 yuan/gram with a daily increase of 7.24%, and silver's Shanghai silver futures main contract was 11169 yuan/kg with a daily increase of 5.54%. The SPDR gold ETF's previous trading day position was 1013.44 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared to the day before. The previous trading day's Comex silver inventory decreased by 2148659 ounces compared to the day before [7][9]. Base Metals - Copper: Its trend strength is 0. The previous trading day closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 86750 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 4.38%. Free Port announced that its Indonesian Grasberg mine encountered force majeure, and its comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower (for copper) and about 6% lower (for gold) than the July 2025 forecast [11][13]. - Zinc: Its trend strength is 0. The previous trading day closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract was 22315 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.25%. The LME zinc cash - 3M spread was 60.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 10.5 dollars/ton compared to the day before [14][16]. - Lead: Its trend strength is 0. The previous trading day closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract was 17115 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.03%. The LME lead inventory was 237450 tons, an increase of 1375 tons compared to the day before [17]. - Tin: Its trend strength is 1. The previous trading day closing price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract was 287090 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 4.75%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 284200 yuan/ton, an increase of 7000 yuan/ton compared to the day before [20][23]. - Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy: The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0. The previous trading day closing price of the Shanghai aluminum futures main contract was 21090 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 63.40 million tons, an increase of 4.70 million tons compared to the day before [24][26]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The trend strength of nickel and stainless steel is 0. The previous trading day closing price of the Shanghai nickel futures main contract was 124480 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel futures main contract was 12860 yuan/ton. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year, and an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park has suspended production of all EF production lines [27][33]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: Its trend strength is 0. The previous trading day closing price of the 2511 lithium carbonate futures contract was 73340 yuan/ton. This week, lithium carbonate production was 20635 tons, an increase of 119 tons compared to last week, and industry inventory was 134801 tons, a decrease of 2024 tons compared to last week [34][36]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The previous trading day closing price of the Si2511 industrial silicon futures contract was 8640 yuan/ton. The international energy agency predicts that global renewable energy installed capacity will increase by 4600 GW from 2025 to 2030 [38][40]. - Iron Ore: Its trend strength is 0. The previous trading day closing price of the iron ore futures I2601 contract was 790.5 yuan/ton. The price of imported PB (61.5%) ore was 781.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.0 yuan/ton compared to the day before [41]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0. The previous trading day closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures contract was 3096 yuan/ton, and that of the HC2601 hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3286 yuan/ton. In the week of October 8, rebar production decreased by 3.62 million tons, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 1.4 million tons [44][47]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0. The previous trading day closing price of the ferrosilicon 2511 futures contract was 5472 yuan/ton, and that of the silicomanganese 2511 futures contract was 5768 yuan/ton. In October, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [49][52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1. The previous trading day closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1164 yuan/ton, and that of the J2601 coke futures contract was 1654 yuan/ton. The China Coking Industry Association stated that it has never issued or authorized any notices or initiatives regarding "mandatory production restrictions" or "joint price increases" [54][55]. - Logs: Its trend strength is 0. The previous trading day closing price of the 2511 log futures contract was 817 yuan/cubic meter. Affected by the US government shutdown, the release of the US September seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls change and September unemployment rate data has been postponed [57][59]. - Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG: Para - xylene and PTA are still weak in the medium term, and a reverse spread strategy for the 1 - 5 month spread is recommended for MEG [60].
黄金：继续创新高，白银：冲击50新高
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-10 01:24