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东吴证券晨会纪要-20251010
Soochow Securities·2025-10-10 01:17

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that the overseas market during the National Day holiday was dominated by two major events: the U.S. government shutdown and the unexpected election of Kishi Nobuo as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan. The government shutdown led to increased risk aversion and a rise in expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, while Kishi's victory raised expectations for "loose fiscal and monetary" policies in Japan, driving gold and Bitcoin to new historical highs [1][17]. Fixed Income - The report indicates that there was no new issuance of secondary capital bonds in the interbank and exchange markets during the week of September 22-26, 2025. However, the total transaction volume of secondary capital bonds reached approximately 229.9 billion yuan, an increase of 52.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [2]. - In the green bond market, 23 new green bonds were issued during the same week, with a total issuance scale of approximately 30.974 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.414 billion yuan from the previous week. The total transaction volume of green bonds was 70.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. Banking Sector - The report analyzes the bond investment pressure and outlook for the banking sector, noting that the actual bond investment income of 42 listed banks in the first half of 2025 was approximately 1.42 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 3.82% compared to the same period in 2024. The growth was primarily driven by investment income, while coupon income faced downward pressure in a declining interest rate environment [4][6]. - Different types of banks showed varied performance, with state-owned banks experiencing relatively controllable pressure due to their significant bond allocation and liquidity advantages. In contrast, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks faced greater challenges in maintaining profitability in bond investments [6]. Energy Equipment Industry - The report emphasizes the strong demand for energy storage, predicting a growth rate of 30-40% in large-scale energy storage in China due to the gradual introduction of compensation electricity prices. The global energy storage installation CAGR from 2025 to 2028 is expected to be 30-50% [8]. - In the lithium battery sector, production in September slightly exceeded previous expectations, with a further 10% increase in October. The report anticipates continued price increases in Q4 due to supply constraints [8]. Automotive Sector - The report notes that in September, the domestic delivery of 15 major new energy vehicle companies reached 877,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 15%. Key players like Xpeng, Xiaomi, and Great Wall all surpassed 40,000 units for the first time [10]. - The automotive sector is entering a new phase where electric vehicle benefits are waning, and the focus is shifting towards intelligent vehicles. Investment opportunities are identified in AI smart cars and related technologies [10]. Semiconductor Industry - The report highlights that Chiplet technology and its applications are a strategic focus for the company, which has been developing this technology for five years. The company is leading in the fields of AIGC and intelligent driving systems [16]. - The company expects significant revenue growth from its semiconductor IP licensing and custom chip design business, with a strong order backlog and a focus on various processing IPs [16].