宝城期货动力煤早报（2025年10月10日）-20251010

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: The fundamentals of thermal coal have weakened, and the inventory at northern ports has started to stabilize and rebound, putting pressure on coal prices. It is expected that the thermal coal price will remain weak after the holiday [4] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - Variety: Thermal coal spot - Intraday view: Not provided - Medium - term view: Oscillation - Core logic: During the National Day, port coal prices basically stabilized, while origin coal prices were under pressure and declined. The market atmosphere was generally weak during the transition between winter and summer. On the supply side, the impact of anti - involution production capacity verification was basically released in September, and coal mine production in major producing areas gradually recovered in October. Coupled with the good cost - effectiveness of imported coal, the overall supply of thermal coal increased steadily. On the demand side, during the National Day, the temperature in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, providing some support for residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed a seasonal weakening trend. In terms of inventory, as of September 26, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.2789 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 7300 tons, and 220000 tons lower than the same period last year [4]