甲醇日评：高库存压制现货价格-20251010

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term methanol prices may be weakly volatile due to high port inventories, supply pressure, and lack of downstream demand [1] - The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - MA01 dropped from 2328.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/30 to 2290.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/9, a decrease of 1.63% [1] - MA05 decreased from 2362.00 yuan/ton to 2346.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.68% [1] - MA09 fell from 2329.00 yuan/ton to 2320.00 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.39% [1] - Spot prices in regions like Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong also decreased, while Hubei's price increased by 1.28% [1] Upstream Costs - Coal prices such as Baotou Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 either decreased slightly or remained unchanged [1] - Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained stable [1] Profit Situations - Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 2.99% from 334.80 yuan/ton to 324.80 yuan/ton [1] - Natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 422.00 yuan/ton [1] - Northwest MTO profit decreased by 55.86%, and East China MTO profit decreased by 0.76% [1] - Profits of downstream products like acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether either increased or decreased to varying degrees [1] Group 4: Important Information Domestic Information - The main methanol contract MA2601 opened at 2321 yuan/ton, closed at 2290 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 545,698 lots and open interest of 999,972 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1] Foreign Information - Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country restarted. The overall loading volume in this country is around 243,000 tons, less than the same period last month [1]