工业硅：上游继续复产，逢高布空思路，多晶硅：市场消息再次发酵，关注实际落地

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, upstream production is resuming, and the idea is to short at high prices [1]. - For polysilicon, market news is fermenting again, and attention should be paid to actual implementation [1]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,640 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 380 yuan compared to T - 5 and an increase of 145 yuan compared to T - 22. Its trading volume was 210,531 lots, and the open interest was 176,563 lots. The closing price of PS2511 was 50,765 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 595 yuan compared to T - 1 and 615 yuan compared to T - 5. Its trading volume was 201,311 lots, and the open interest was 84,987 lots [1]. - Basis: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) was +810 yuan/ton. The spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type re - investment) was +1,285 yuan/ton [1]. - Price: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan compared to T - 1 and 150 yuan compared to T - 5. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan compared to T - 5 and 3,550 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Profit: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) was - 2,629.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 803.5 yuan compared to T - 5. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 14.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. - Inventory: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.5 million tons, and the enterprise inventory was 16.8 million tons. The industry inventory was 71.3 million tons. The warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon futures was 25.4 million tons. The manufacturer inventory of polysilicon was 24.0 million tons [1]. - Raw Material Cost: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 290 yuan/ton. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,725 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was 1,140 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - The International Energy Agency's "Renewable Energy 2025" report predicts that despite challenges, global renewable energy installed capacity will grow strongly in the next 5 years, reaching twice the increment of the previous 5 years. Solar photovoltaic will drive the growth, accounting for about 80% of the increase in global renewable energy installed capacity. Wind power will be the second - largest contributor, and other renewable energy technologies will also play important roles [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].