贵属策略报：盈盘扰动短期价格，银突破历史低位

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the precious metals market saw partial profit - taking, with prices slightly declining, and silver officially breaking through its historical high. The U.S. government remains in a shutdown, and the two - party stalemate continues. The situation of "no news is good news" persists during the data vacuum period. The election of Takako Koshikawa as the LDP president may increase geopolitical risks in the Asia - Pacific region and boost the willingness to allocate gold [1][3]. - In the fourth quarter, the upward logic of precious metals is generally smooth. The beginning of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and liquidity easing are short - term drivers, while debt over - issuance and de - globalization leading to the contraction of the U.S. dollar's credit are the long - term bullish foundation for gold, and silver benefits synchronously [3]. - Currently, the price volatility of gold and silver has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level, and the prices are not as extremely crowded as in April. Attention should be paid to the progress of the U.S. government shutdown and the release of non - farm and inflation data after the shutdown ends, as well as price volatility changes [1][3]. - The weekly outlook for spot London gold is in the range of [4000, 4200] dollars per ounce, and for spot London silver, it is in the range of [48, 55] dollars per ounce [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - New York Fed President John Williams supports further interest - rate cuts this year to address potential sharp slowdown risks in the labor market. He believes the U.S. economy is not on the verge of recession, and inflation prospects are less dire than earlier this year. Labor market weakness will help curb inflation [2]. - The U.S. National Tax Service will furlough over 34,000 employees due to the government shutdown, accounting for about 46% of the department's total staff. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson is discussing reforms to the Affordable Care Act subsidies [2]. - Trump said he is conducting transactions with Japan and South Korea. The Vietnamese government said its negotiation representatives will go to the U.S. in October and November to continue trade negotiations [2]. Price Logic - After the holiday, partial profit - taking in the precious metals market led to a slight price decline, and silver broke through its historical high. The U.S. government shutdown continues, and the two - party stalemate persists. The situation of "no news is good news" continues during the data vacuum period. The election of Takako Koshikawa as the LDP president may increase geopolitical risks in the Asia - Pacific region and boost the willingness to allocate gold [1][3]. - In the fourth quarter, the upward logic of precious metals is smooth. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and liquidity easing are short - term drivers, while debt over - issuance and de - globalization leading to the contraction of the U.S. dollar's credit are the long - term bullish foundation for gold, and silver benefits synchronously [3]. - Currently, the price volatility of gold and silver has slightly increased but remains relatively low, and the prices are not as extremely crowded as in April. Attention should be paid to the progress of the U.S. government shutdown and the release of non - farm and inflation data after the shutdown ends, which may cause disturbances in interest - rate cut expectations. Also, changes in price volatility may increase the risk of price adjustments [1][3]. - The weekly outlook for spot London gold is in the range of [4000, 4200] dollars per ounce, and for spot London silver, it is in the range of [48, 55] dollars per ounce [3]. Market Index - As of October 9, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodity index has related data. The commodity index is 2249.67, up 1.12%; the commodity 20 index is 2541.25, up 1.66%; the industrial products index is 2238.71, up 0.87%; the PPI commodity index is 1342.89, up 2.05% [43]. - The precious metals index on October 9, 2025, has a daily increase of 3.88%, a 5 - day increase of 7.08%, a 1 - month increase of 12.26%, and a year - to - date increase of 44.98% [44].