昨日棕油领涨油脂市场,关注MPOB报告
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-10 01:32
- Report Industry Investment Rating The industries covered in the report are classified as follows according to the outlook provided: - Oils and Fats: Palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil are expected to be "oscillating with an upward bias" [1][8]. - Protein Meal: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to "oscillate" [9]. - Corn and Starch: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [10]. - Pigs: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [13]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to "oscillate" [15]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to "oscillate within a range" [16]. - Cotton: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [17]. - Sugar: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [19]. - Pulp: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [20]. - Offset Paper: Expected to "oscillate" [21]. - Logs: Expected to be "oscillating with an upward bias" [23]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oils and Fats: Palm oil led the rise in the oil market yesterday. The market should pay attention to the MPOB report. The main bullish factors include the expected positive impact of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, increased consumption of palm oil by biodiesel in Indonesia, palm oil gradually entering the production - reduction season, continued reduction of domestic rapeseed oil inventory, and a high probability of a decline in US soybean yield [1][8]. - Protein Meal: After the holiday, the spot price stabilized, and the futures price oscillated at a low level. Domestically, in the short term, the price is supported by post - holiday restocking, while in the long term, supply is expected to be sufficient. In the international market, US soybeans are facing both bullish and bearish factors and are likely to continue oscillating [9]. - Corn and Starch: With the arrival of the new grain selling pressure, the price is oscillating with a downward bias. In the short term, there may be a slight rebound due to tight inventory, but in the long term, the market is expected to be "short - term bearish and long - term bullish" [10][11]. - Pigs: After the holiday, it is the off - season for consumption, and pig prices are falling. In the short term, the pig market is under supply pressure, while in the long term, if capacity reduction is implemented, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [13]. - Natural Rubber: Attention should be paid to the post - holiday performance of downstream industries. In the short term, there is support, but the long - term expectation is weak, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [15]. - Synthetic Rubber: The range - bound oscillation pattern remains unchanged. In the medium term, there is strong bottom support, but there is no continuous upward driving force [16]. - Cotton: Cotton prices are under pressure and weakening. In the fourth quarter, with the increase in supply, the price is under downward pressure. The market should pay attention to whether the new - year production increase is less than expected and changes in macro - trade negotiations [17]. - Sugar: The supply pressure is marginally alleviated, and sugar prices are rebounding. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, while in the long term, the price is in a bearish pattern [19]. - Pulp: During the holiday, there were no significant changes, and pulp continued its weak pattern. The market is constrained by high supply and weak demand [20]. - Offset Paper: Tendering has limited boosting effect, and offset paper is oscillating with a downward bias. The market supply pressure is increasing, and the price may decline slightly after the holiday [21]. - Logs: Supported by the increase in spot prices, logs are performing strongly. In the short term, the price is supported, while in the long term, there may be seasonal inventory accumulation after the peak season [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views - Oils and Fats: Palm oil led the rise yesterday. Due to factors such as the rebound of US soybeans and soybean oil, Indonesia's planned biodiesel B50 policy in 2026, and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory in September, the domestic oil market was boosted. The market should pay attention to the MPOB report [1][8]. - Protein Meal: Internationally, US soybeans are facing both bullish and bearish factors and are expected to oscillate. Domestically, in the short term, the price is supported by post - holiday restocking, while in the long term, supply is expected to be sufficient [9]. - Corn and Starch: New grain selling pressure is emerging, and the price is oscillating with a downward bias. In the short term, inventory is tight, and there may be a slight rebound, while in the long term, the market is "short - term bearish and long - term bullish" [10][11]. - Pigs: After the holiday, consumption decreased, and pig prices fell. In the short term, the market is under supply pressure, while in the long term, if capacity reduction is implemented, supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [13]. - Natural Rubber: Attention should be paid to the post - holiday performance of downstream industries. In the short term, there is support, but the long - term expectation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. - Synthetic Rubber: The range - bound oscillation pattern remains unchanged. In the medium term, there is strong bottom support, but there is no continuous upward driving force [16]. - Cotton: Cotton prices are under pressure and weakening. In the fourth quarter, with the increase in supply, the price is under downward pressure. The market should pay attention to production and trade negotiation changes [17]. - Sugar: The supply pressure is marginally alleviated, and sugar prices are rebounding. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate and consolidate, while in the long term, it is in a bearish pattern [19]. - Pulp: During the holiday, there were no significant changes, and pulp continued its weak pattern. The market is constrained by high supply and weak demand [20]. - Offset Paper: Tendering has limited boosting effect, and offset paper is oscillating with a downward bias. Supply pressure is increasing, and the price may decline slightly after the holiday [21]. - Logs: Supported by the increase in spot prices, logs are performing strongly. In the short term, the price is supported, while in the long term, there may be seasonal inventory accumulation after the peak season [23]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - Oils and Fats, Protein Meal, Corn, Starch, Pigs, Cotton, Sugar, Pulp, Offset Paper, Logs: The report lists relevant data for these varieties, such as prices, production, and inventory, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [25][45][58]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides a rating standard for the outlook of varieties, including definitions of "upward - biased", "oscillating with an upward bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a downward bias", "downward - biased", and explanations of the time period and standard deviation [180]. 3.4 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity 20 index is 2541.25, up 1.66%; the industrial products index is 2238.71, up 0.87% [182]. - Agricultural Products Index: On October 9, 2025, the index was 937.50, with a daily decline of 0.37%, a 5 - day decline of 1.42%, a 1 - month decline of 3.48%, and a year - to - date decline of 1.80% [184].