尿素早评：向上驱动未现，供给压力驱动向下-20251010

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2) Core View - After the holiday, the urea price dropped significantly. The potential upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) did not appear. Due to the uncertainty of export policies, the domestic market's reaction to India's new tender during the National Day was limited. If there is no further change in exports, with the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, domestic demand may not be able to absorb the high supply pressure, and the urea price may continue to fluctuate weakly. However, the current urea valuation is low, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog A. Futures and Spot Prices - Urea Futures Prices: On October 9, UR01 closed at 1609 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan or 3.65% from September 30; UR05 closed at 1677 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 2.33%; UR09 closed at 1701 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 2.35% [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule): On October 9, the prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu were 1560, 1460, 1570, 1620, 1630, and 1570 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 40 (-2.50%), - 30 (-2.01%), - 20 (-1.26%), - 20 (-1.22%), - 20 (-1.21%), and - 30 (-1.88%) yuan compared to September 30 [1]. B. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 117 yuan/ton on October 9, unchanged from September 30. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 68 yuan/ton on October 9, down 21 yuan from September 30 [1]. C. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan were 2900 and 2500 yuan/ton on October 9, down 30 (-1.02%) and 20 (-0.79%) yuan respectively compared to September 30. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5100 and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. D. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1648 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1648 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1604 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1609 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1619 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2601 was 310,689 lots [1].