国泰君安期货所长早读-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued four announcements regarding export controls on rare earths, lithium batteries, superhard materials, etc., with rare earth - related items being the focus, and the controls will take effect on November 8 [7]. - The silver price reached a new high, and it is expected that the upward trend will continue, but attention should be paid to the results of the US tariff investigation and the possible release of invisible silver inventories [8]. - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), a 2 - 4 positive spread long - short position can be entered lightly. The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly, the 2512 contract will maintain a wide - range shock, the 2602 contract has divergence on resumption of navigation, and the 2604 and far - month contracts are bearish in the long - term [9]. - For nickel, the contradiction between smelting inventory accumulation and mine - end expectations restricts each other, and the nickel price may continue to fluctuate within a range, but if the contradiction on either side intensifies in the fourth quarter, the volatility of Shanghai nickel will increase [10][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pre - market Reading Highlights - Silver: The price hit a record high of $51.221, mainly due to tight overseas spot supply, potential 232 - clause tariff investigations, and the transfer of London silver inventory to New York. The silver rental rate is at a historical high, and the upward trend is expected to continue, but attention should be paid to the US tariff investigation results and the release of invisible inventories [8]. - Container Freight Index (European Line): A 2 - 4 positive spread long - short position can be entered lightly. The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1050 - 1150 points. The probability of full resumption of navigation in December and January next year is low, and the 2512 contract will maintain a wide - range shock, the 2602 contract has opportunities after over - decline, and the 2604 and far - month contracts are bearish in the long - term [9]. - Nickel: Indonesian nickel mine issues increase supply concerns, but global refined nickel inventory is accumulating, and the market has expectations of slowdown in implicit restocking. The short - term long - short contradictions restrict each other, and the nickel price may fluctuate within a range [10][12]. Commodity Research Morning Report Precious Metals - Gold: Continued to reach new highs, with the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract closing at 914.32 yuan, up 7.24% [15][20]. - Silver: Approached the $50 mark, with the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract closing at 11169 yuan, up 5.54% [15][20]. Base Metals - Copper: The rise in the US dollar limited price increases. The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 86,750 yuan, up 4.38% [15][24]. - Zinc: Had a slight rebound, with the Shanghai Zinc main contract closing at 22315 yuan, up 2.25% [15][27]. - Lead: Inventory increase restricted price recovery, with the Shanghai Lead main contract closing at 17115 yuan, up 1.03% [15][30]. - Tin: Accelerated upward, with the Shanghai Tin main contract closing at 287,090 yuan, up 4.75% [15][33]. - Aluminum: Fluctuated within a range, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract closing at 21090 yuan [15][37]. - Alumina: Trended weakly, with the Shanghai Alumina main contract closing at 2875 yuan [15][37]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [15][37]. - Nickel: The contradiction between smelting inventory accumulation and mine - end expectations restricted each other, and the price may fluctuate within a range [15][40]. - Stainless Steel: The short - term supply - demand and cost factors restricted each other, and the steel price fluctuated [15][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: De - stocking accelerated, and it fluctuated. The 2511 contract closed at 73,340 yuan [15][47]. - Industrial Silicon: Upstream resumed production, and a short - selling strategy at high prices was recommended [15][50]. - Polysilicon: Market news fermented again, and attention should be paid to actual implementation [15][50]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it trended strongly and fluctuated, with the I 2601 contract closing at 790.5 yuan, up 1.28% [15][54]. - Rebar: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric - furnace production cuts, and it fluctuated widely [15][57]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric - furnace production cuts, and it fluctuated widely [15][58]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The market was in a wait - and - see atmosphere and fluctuated widely [15][62]. - Silicon Manganese: The market was in a wait - and - see atmosphere and fluctuated widely [15][62]. - Coke: Expectations were volatile, and it fluctuated widely [15][66]. - Coking Coal: Expectations were volatile, and it fluctuated widely [15][67]. - Log: Fluctuated repeatedly [15][69].