铅：库存增加，限制价格回升

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The increase in lead inventories restricts the rebound of lead prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Price: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,115 yuan/ton, up 1.03%, and the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,004.5 dollars/ton, down 0.02% [1]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 40,199 lots, a decrease of 5,406 lots, and the open interest was 41,077 lots, a decrease of 1,556 lots. The trading volume of LME lead was 3,716 lots, a decrease of 1,421 lots, and the open interest was 147,617 lots, a decrease of 1,130 lots [1]. - Premium and Discount: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -35 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.5 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 30,068 tons, an increase of 500 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 237,450 tons, an increase of 1,375 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 49,025 tons, a decrease of 600 tons [1]. - Profit and Loss: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -473.87 yuan/ton, an increase of 59.49 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous third - month contract was -466.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47.04 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -143 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. News - US macro - economic data remained in a vacuum, investors were worried about the bubble risk, and the demand for profit - taking increased [1]. - Fed Governor Barr said that the Fed should be cautious when further adjusting its policy stance because the price increase rate is still too fast [1]. Lead Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [1].