能源化策略：原油调整但政策预期偏强，化?内部分化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is weak, with most products expected to experience weak fluctuations. Specific ratings for each product include: oil (weakly fluctuating), asphalt (weakly fluctuating), high - sulfur fuel oil (weakly fluctuating), low - sulfur fuel oil (weakly fluctuating), PX (fluctuating), PTA (fluctuating), pure benzene (weakly fluctuating), styrene (weakly fluctuating), MEG (weakly fluctuating), short - fiber (fluctuating), polyester bottle - chip (fluctuating), methanol (weakly fluctuating in the short - term), urea (weakly fluctuating), LLDPE (weakly fluctuating), PP (weakly fluctuating), PL (weakly fluctuating), PVC (fluctuating), and caustic soda (fluctuating) [10][11][14][17][18][19][22][24][28][29][33][34][35][37][38] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price is in a stable and fluctuating state, and the Brent oil price remains within the 65 - 70 range. The SC oil price has fallen to the lower edge of the range due to high domestic crude oil inventories. The market is focused on the Israel - Hamas agreement, but there are doubts about its final implementation. The coking coal price rebounded on the first trading day after the holiday, and there is a possibility of price stabilization for coal [1]. - On the evening of October 9th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on "regulating price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market order," which may slightly boost the sentiment of the domestic sluggish commodity market. For chemical products, there has been no effective production reduction. The supply side has not effectively responded to losses, and the chemical market pattern remains weak [2]. - The energy and chemical industry will continue to be weakly fluctuating, with oil as the anchor. If geopolitical disturbances gradually weaken, the oil price center is expected to continue to decline [7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - Oil: The US Treasury's sanctions on entities related to Iranian oil have not significantly affected oil prices. Global supply is in an increasing phase dominated by high - growth OPEC+ production, with a surplus pressure. After the weakening of geopolitical support, oil prices are expected to return to a downward channel [10]. - Asphalt: OPEC+ production increase, a reduction in Saudi's export premium to Asia, and the cooling of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in the geopolitical premium, putting pressure on asphalt futures prices. The supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [11]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The sudden agreement in the Israel - Hamas conflict has led to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. Although there is an improvement in demand expectations, the impact of geopolitical upgrades on prices is expected to be short - term [11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It follows the weak trend of oil, facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to maintain low - valuation operation [13]. - PX: Although there are some device outages, the overall supply is still relatively abundant. With the poor performance of polyester and textile clothing demand, PX profits are expected to be under pressure [14]. - PTA: The cost has short - term support, and the supply - demand situation in October is relatively stable. However, the market has a pessimistic expectation of future supply - demand loosening. If there is no large - scale production reduction, processing fees will remain under pressure [16]. - Pure benzene: The downstream pre - holiday inventory build - up has strengthened the market structure, but the supply is expected to exceed demand until the end of the year, with significant inventory accumulation pressure in October [17]. - Styrene: Although the supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance, the high inventory in the upstream and downstream is difficult to reduce, and the cost - side pure benzene inventory is also difficult to clear, dragging down the styrene price [18]. - MEG: The supply pressure is gradually being realized, and the inventory accumulation inflection point is approaching. Although the inventory accumulation amplitude is limited, domestic production is expected to increase, and polyester demand may weaken [22]. - Short - fiber: The upstream cost fluctuates, and the short - fiber price follows slightly. Although the terminal demand has marginally improved, the procurement is still cautious, and the overall driving force is limited [23]. - Polyester bottle - chip: The price follows the upstream cost fluctuations. Under the joint production reduction of bottle - chip factories, the processing fees are relatively stable. The expansion space of processing fees is limited, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction plans [26]. - Methanol: Affected by the weakening of olefins and inventory accumulation, the futures price has declined. However, considering the potential disturbances from Iran, there may be some room for rebound after a continuous decline [28]. - Urea: After the holiday, there is a supply - demand mismatch, agricultural demand is weakening, and there is no short - term positive news. The market is expected to be weakly fluctuating [29]. - LLDPE: It follows the weak trend of the energy and chemical market. The supply - demand situation is not optimistic, and the profit support is limited. The price is expected to be weakly fluctuating in the short - term [33]. - PP: Affected by the decline of PG, the price has fallen. The supply - side pressure remains, and the transmission of raw material price decline is obvious [35]. - PL: Affected by the decline of PG, the futures price has fallen, but the spot price has some support, and it is expected to be weakly fluctuating in the short - term [35]. - PVC: There are still fundamental pressures, and the cost change is expected to be small. It is expected to be cautiously weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [37]. - Caustic soda: The spot price is weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory build - up and upstream start - up changes [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period spreads: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.59 with a change of 0.02, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 16 [40]. - Basis and warehouse receipts: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each product are different. For example, the basis of asphalt is 115 with a change of 39, and the warehouse receipt is 44430 [41]. - Inter - variety spreads: The inter - variety spread data also vary. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 125 with a change of 7, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 426 with a change of 39 [43]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although there are sub - sections for various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data summaries are provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of the commodity market have different performance. The commodity 20 index increased by 1.66% to 2541.25, the industrial products index increased by 0.87% to 2238.71, and the energy index decreased by 1.98% on October 9th, 2025 [287][289].