格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond sector is "oscillating" for TL, T, TF, and TS [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures showing strong performance. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.46%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.15%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02% [1] - The central bank conducted 612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with 2.0633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 351.3 billion yuan [1] - On Thursday, the overnight inter - bank funding rate declined compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.33% for the day, down from 1.39% the previous day; DR007 had a weighted average of 1.51%, up from 1.44% the previous day [1] - On Thursday, most of the closing yields of inter - bank bond cash bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year bond yield fell 0.77 basis points to 1.49%, the 5 - year fell 0.57 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 1.39 basis points to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.68 basis points to 2.26% [1] - During the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the cumulative cross - regional passenger flow reached 2.433 billion person - times, with a daily average of 304 million person - times, a 6.3% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in 2024, setting a new record [1] - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic trips reached 888 million person - times, an increase of 123 million person - times compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024; domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024 [1] - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements to implement export controls on related items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the sixth consecutive month. The new order index in September was 49.7%, still below the boom - bust line. The construction business activity index in September was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 50.1%, showing a mild expansion, while the new order index for the service industry declined [2] - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - oriented approach and balances domestic and international factors, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [2] - On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated narrowly after a rally, and closed with a small positive line. The trading volume was 2.67 trillion yuan, larger than the previous trading day's 2.2 trillion yuan. Bond futures closed higher across the board without being affected by the stock market, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [2] - For trading - type investments, use a band - trading strategy [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures showing strong performance. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.46%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.15%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02% [1] - The Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher on Thursday, fluctuated narrowly after a rally, and closed with a small positive line. The trading volume was 2.67 trillion yuan, larger than the previous trading day's 2.2 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - The central bank conducted 612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with 2.0633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 351.3 billion yuan [1] - The overnight inter - bank funding rate declined on Thursday compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.33% for the day, down from 1.39% the previous day; DR007 had a weighted average of 1.51%, up from 1.44% the previous day [1] - Most of the closing yields of inter - bank bond cash bonds declined on Thursday compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year bond yield fell 0.77 basis points to 1.49%, the 5 - year fell 0.57 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 1.39 basis points to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.68 basis points to 2.26% [1] - During the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the cumulative cross - regional passenger flow reached 2.433 billion person - times, with a daily average of 304 million person - times, a 6.3% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in 2024, setting a new record [1] - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic trips reached 888 million person - times, an increase of 123 million person - times compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024; domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024 [1] - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements to implement export controls on related items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] Market Logic - China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the sixth consecutive month. The new order index in September was 49.7%, still below the boom - bust line. The construction business activity index in September was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 50.1%, showing a mild expansion, while the new order index for the service industry declined [2] - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - oriented approach and balances domestic and international factors, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [2] Trading Strategy - For trading - type investments, use a band - trading strategy [2]