国投期货综合晨报-20251010

Oil Market - International oil prices have declined, with Brent crude falling by 1.29%. The Israeli cabinet's approval of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza marks a significant breakthrough in the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, potentially easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, there are concerns about supply-demand imbalances in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year, which may increase market volatility [2][3]. Precious Metals - International gold prices have surpassed $4,000 per ounce, while silver prices briefly exceeded $50 per ounce, reaching a historical high before retreating. The long-term upward trend for precious metals remains intact, but short-term price increases may slow down due to the announcement of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Israel [3][4]. Copper Market - Copper prices initially rose to $11,000 per ton before declining, with domestic prices also increasing. The U.S. government shutdown and differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts have contributed to market fluctuations. Current copper inventories are at a relatively high level, and while there is potential for new highs driven by capital, maintaining upward momentum may be challenging [4][5]. Aluminum Market - The aluminum market has shown strength, with domestic prices breaking previous highs. However, the overall consumption remains lackluster, and macroeconomic factors are driving prices upward without sufficient fundamental support [5][6]. Zinc Market - The zinc market is experiencing pressure, with LME zinc inventories at 38,300 tons and a significant portion of contracts being canceled. Despite weak downstream consumption, the market is expected to remain in a low-price range, with short-term fluctuations anticipated [8][9]. Lead Market - Lead inventories have decreased, and prices are gradually recovering. The market is currently cautious, with a focus on changes in fund sentiment. The overall supply-demand balance remains tight, and there is potential for price increases due to low inventories [9][10]. Nickel Market - Nickel prices have rebounded from low levels, but the market remains subdued due to high inventories and overcapacity. Short-term price movements are expected to be volatile, with no strong bullish outlook [10][11]. Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing low volatility, with market activity remaining subdued. Recent price quotes indicate stability, but the market lacks strong bullish support [12][13]. Steel Market - The steel market is facing challenges, with significant inventory accumulation and weak demand. The PMI for September indicates marginal stabilization in manufacturing, but overall demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector [14][15]. Iron Ore Market - Iron ore prices have increased, driven by concerns over supply disruptions. However, demand remains relatively low, and there are expectations of production cuts as steel mill profits decline [15][16]. Coal Market - The coal market is experiencing price increases, supported by stable demand from the steel industry. However, overall supply remains high, and the market is cautious about future price movements [16][17]. Agricultural Products - The soybean market is seeing fluctuations due to U.S. inventory levels and trade tensions. Domestic supply is expected to remain stable, but external factors may impact prices [36][37]. Palm Oil Market - Palm oil prices have strengthened due to positive market sentiment and expected supply reductions. However, the overall market remains cautious, with potential for fluctuations based on external demand [37][38]. Corn Market - The corn market is facing downward pressure due to slow harvest progress and weak demand. Prices are expected to remain low as market participants adopt a bearish outlook [40][41]. Livestock Market - The livestock market is under pressure, with significant price declines observed in both pork and egg markets. Supply pressures are expected to continue, leading to cautious market sentiment [41][42].