集运日报：SCFIS持续回落，或将全面停火，远月大幅回落，符合日报预期，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20251010

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining, and there may be a full - scale cease - fire. The far - month contracts have significantly declined, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is not recommended to add positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5]. - The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Content Shipping Index Data - On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, down 6.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 876.82 points, down 4.8% from the previous period. On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period [3]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing boom level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities has accelerated [4]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's September composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's September Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. Market and Policy - Sino - US tariffs are extended, and the negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - On October 9, the main contract 2512 closed at 1688.0, down 1.81%, with a trading volume of 41,500 lots and an open interest of 24,200 lots, an increase of 3451 lots from the previous day [5]. - During the holiday, the SCFIS index continued to decline, and the situation in the India - Pakistan - Israel region signaled a relaxation. The market was affected, with strong bearish sentiment and wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to pull back and stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. Geopolitical News - On October 9, Palestinian President Abbas welcomed the efforts to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip, which includes cease - fire, Israeli troop withdrawal, and access to humanitarian aid. He hopes it will pave the way for a permanent political solution and end the illegal Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory [7]. - On the early morning of October 9, the Israeli Defense Forces stated that they had evaluated the latest situation overnight. The IDF Chief of Staff instructed the troops to prepare for various situations, welcomed the agreement on the return of the detained persons, and said that the army's deployment would be implemented according to political - level instructions and the requirements of relevant stages of the agreement [7].