Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global supply of soybeans is expected to remain loose in the medium term, and the overall strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][3]. - For oils and fats, supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increasing demand for soybean oil due to the US biodiesel policy draft, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and decreasing export volume expectations of Indonesia, the oils and fats market is expected to remain strong in the medium term [5][6][7]. - For sugar, considering the high - yield situation in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the overall outlook is bearish, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - For cotton, both domestic and international factors suggest that the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support at around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [13][14]. - For eggs, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term. However, potential inventory transfer after the holiday may support the spot price [16][17][18]. - For pigs, due to factors such as excessive supply and weak demand, the short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to short near - term contracts and conduct reverse spreads [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Market Conditions: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell slightly. The USDA report was postponed due to the government shutdown. On Thursday, domestic soybean meal futures were stable, and the spot price rose slightly by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume from October 4th to 10th was 1.357 million tons. As of October 2nd, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 9% [2]. - Strategy: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side lacks clear positive factors. In the medium term, the overall strategy is to sell on rallies, while in the short term, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Oils and Fats - Market Conditions: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan, which will increase the demand for palm - based biofuels. Reuters estimated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September might decrease by 2.5% compared to August. On Thursday, domestic oils and fats rose significantly, mainly stimulated by the news of Indonesia's B50 plan [5]. - Strategy: Supported by factors such as low inventories, increasing demand, and decreasing export volume expectations, the oils and fats market is expected to remain strong in the medium term. It is recommended to buy on dips after a stable decline [6][7]. Sugar - Market Conditions: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,528 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day. In September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [9][10]. - Strategy: Considering the high - yield situation in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - Market Conditions: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 13,295 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day. The purchase price of seed cotton was lower than last year, and the downstream demand was weak [13]. - Strategy: Due to weak domestic demand and high export pressure in the US, the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support at around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [14]. Eggs - Market Conditions: The national egg price generally declined. The short - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve significantly, and the market confidence is low [16][17]. - Strategy: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term. However, potential inventory transfer after the holiday may support the spot price [18]. Pigs - Market Conditions: The domestic pig price continued to decline. The slaughter enterprises had the intention to lower the purchase price, and the pig price was expected to continue to decline slightly [20]. - Strategy: Due to excessive supply and weak demand, the short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to short near - term contracts and conduct reverse spreads [21].
五矿期货农产品早报-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-10 02:26