海外避险情绪高涨，关注内盘区间上沿压力

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The intense game between the two parties in the US has led to the suspension of important economic data release, with no sign of alleviation. Meanwhile, there will be major adjustments in the Japanese political arena. Overall, the high uncertainty has caused the US dollar index, precious metals, and metal prices to run strongly in sync. It is expected that the domestic market will open higher after the holiday, but considering the departure of most long - position funds in the Shanghai aluminum market before the holiday and the average overall open interest, the upside space is estimated to be limited. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the upper limit of the range at 21,000. On the fundamental side, attention should be paid to the change in social inventory. It is recommended that the industrial side pay attention to high - level hedging opportunities [6][9] Summary by Directory Alumina - Industry Fundamentals Supply - In September, the in - production capacity increased by 3.5 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate increased month - on - month. The weekly arrival volume of domestic ores decreased month - on - month, and the shipment volume from Guinea decreased month - on - month. The overall supply is stable with minor fluctuations, and the in - production capacity shows a slight overall increase [9][11] Import - In August 2025, China's net export of alumina was 85,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease, with 17 consecutive months of net exports. The import profit converged week - on - week [9][21] Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level. In the short term, the demand for alumina was relatively stable [9] Profit - The full production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan, with a profit of 196.7 yuan/ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased significantly. The caustic soda price was 3,750 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [9] Inventory - Warehouse receipts continued to increase significantly. Weekly production and weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and production remained in surplus. The spot price declined but was still at a premium to the futures price. As the supply gradually becomes looser, it is expected that the spot price will continue to converge downward [9] Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals Supply - The in - production capacity increased slightly. In August, the net import was 191,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43,300 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 14,900 tons. The current import loss was 1,765 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week widening of 121 yuan/ton. The price of scrap aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the premium of primary aluminum over scrap aluminum converged by 65 yuan/ton week - on - week. In August, the import of scrap aluminum was 172,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3% and a month - on - month increase of 12,100 tons [9][56][61] Demand - In August, the output of aluminum products was 5.5482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% and a month - on - month increase of 64,500 tons. The output of aluminum alloy was 163,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% and a month - on - month increase of 99,000 tons [9] Profit - The smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 112 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the current smelting cost was around 16,463 yuan/ton, with a profit of 4,387 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [9] Inventory - The social inventory was 591,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,000 tons and an in - week decrease of 24,000 tons. The spot price fluctuated weakly at a high level with the futures price. The discount of the spot price converged during the week, and downstream buyers still had some resistance to high prices [9]