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Core Viewpoints - Supply - side tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support copper prices upward, but if precious metals form a stage top, the short - term copper price increase may slow down [2]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue volatile and strong due to the increased proportion of molten aluminum and seasonal consumption recovery [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy consumption shows peak - season characteristics, and cost provides support, but due to increasing warehouse receipts, the upside space is limited [9]. - Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to have wide - range low - level fluctuations due to post - holiday de - stocking and positive sector sentiment [12]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term due to normal production during holidays, positive sector sentiment, and structural risks in LME zinc [14]. - Tin prices may maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term due to tight supply - demand balance and peak - season demand recovery [16]. - Nickel prices may face downward pressure in the short term but have limited downside in the long term, and short - term waiting and long - position entry on dips are recommended [18]. - Lithium carbonate has strong supply and demand, with social inventory decreasing. Supply recovery expectations may pressure the market [22]. - Alumina has short - term support in ore prices but faces over - capacity and supply recovery pressure. Short - term waiting is recommended [25]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain volatile operation, and attention should be paid to RKAB approval progress [28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: After the National Day, copper prices were strong. LME copper 3M rose 0.71% to $10,776/ton, and Shanghai copper closed at 86,650 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 275 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 18,000 tons [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support copper prices, but if precious metals peak, the short - term increase may slow. Shanghai copper main contract range: 85,500 - 87,800 yuan/ton; LME copper 3M range: $10,680 - $10,900/ton [2]. Aluminum - Market Information: On the first day after the National Day, aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum 3M rose 1.16% to $2,782/ton, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,100 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 57,000 tons [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The market atmosphere is warm, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Shanghai aluminum main contract range: 21,000 - 21,250 yuan/ton; LME aluminum 3M range: $2,750 - $2,820/ton [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: AD2511 contract rose 1.93% to 20,550 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream ADC12 price increased by 200 yuan/ton, and domestic regeneration aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased slightly [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Consumption shows peak - season characteristics, cost provides support, but warehouse receipt increase limits upside space [9]. Lead - Market Information: Shanghai lead index rose 1.19% to 17,121 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,013/ton. Domestic social inventory decreased to 35,800 tons [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to have wide - range low - level fluctuations due to post - holiday de - stocking and positive sector sentiment [12]. Zinc - Market Information: Shanghai zinc index rose 2.36% to 22,330 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $3,028/ton. Domestic social inventory increased slightly to 150,200 tons [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term due to normal production during holidays, positive sector sentiment, and structural risks in LME zinc [14]. Tin - Market Information: Shanghai tin main contract rose 4.37% to 287,090 yuan/ton. Supply is tight, and demand in traditional sectors is weak but improving in the peak season [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Tin prices may maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. Domestic main contract range: 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton; overseas LME tin range: $36,000 - $39,000/ton [16]. Nickel - Market Information: Shanghai nickel main contract rose 2.96% to 124,480 yuan/ton. Spot market trading was average, and cost was stable [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Nickel prices may face short - term downward pressure but have limited downside in the long term. Short - term waiting and long - position entry on dips are recommended. Shanghai nickel main contract range: 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton; LME nickel 3M range: $14,500 - $16,500/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: MMLC index was flat at 73,011 yuan. LC2511 contract rose 0.74%. Domestic weekly production was 20,635 tons, and inventory decreased by 2,024 tons (-1.5%) [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Lithium carbonate has strong supply and demand, with social inventory decreasing. Supply recovery expectations may pressure the market. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2511 contract range: 71,000 - 74,800 yuan/ton [22]. Alumina - Market Information: On October 9, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.28% to 2,880 yuan/ton. Shandong spot price fell, and overseas prices also declined. Import window opened [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Alumina has short - term support in ore prices but faces over - capacity and supply recovery pressure. Short - term waiting is recommended. Domestic main contract AO2601 range: 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton [25]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel main contract rose 1.02% to 12,860 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some markets changed slightly, and social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Stainless steel is expected to maintain volatile operation, and attention should be paid to RKAB approval progress [28].
有色金属日报-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-10 02:27