Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Overseas supply growth trend is hard to reverse, and the opening of the import window exacerbates the oversupply situation in the domestic market. Since 2025, overseas alumina production has continued to increase, with the increments mainly from India and Indonesia, while Australia's production has remained basically flat. The import window opened in early September due to the rapid decline in overseas prices, and the increase in imports is expected to further intensify the domestic oversupply situation. Alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure until there are large - scale production cuts due to losses [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Overseas Alumina Supply Side - Overall overseas production: In the first nine months of 2025, overseas alumina cumulative production was 46.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.06%. In September 2025, the output reached 5.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The increasing trend of overseas alumina production is expected to continue until there are large - scale production cuts due to losses [4]. - Production in major countries: - Australia: In September 2025, Australia's alumina output was 1.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.23%. The cumulative output in the first nine months was 13.14 million tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.55% [5]. - India: In September 2025, India's alumina output was 0.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. The cumulative output in the first nine months was 6.52 million tons, a year - on - year significant increase of 5.8%, with the increment mainly from the continuous output expansion of Vedanta smelter [5]. - Indonesia: In September 2025, Indonesia's alumina output was 0.4984 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.21%. The cumulative output in the first nine months was 4.08 million tons, a year - on - year significant increase of 37.48%. With the continuous ramping up of Nanshan Aluminum's capacity, Indonesia's alumina output is expected to increase further this year. There will still be large increments in India and Indonesia in 2026 and 2027 [5]. - Overseas alumina production plan: The total planned production capacity to be put into operation is 11.5 million tons, with 4.5 million tons in 2025, 6 million tons in 2026, and 1 million tons in 2027 [19]. Overseas Price Collapse and Increased Domestic Import Pressure - Overseas price: As of October 9, the FOB price of Australian alumina was $319/ton, down $58 from the high in early August and down 52% from the beginning of the year. The rapid decline in overseas prices led to the opening of the domestic import window in early September [20]. - Domestic import situation: As of October 9, the domestic alumina import profit and loss was 58 yuan/ton. The increase in imports is expected to further exacerbate the domestic oversupply situation, and alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure until there are large - scale production cuts due to losses [20][26].
氧化铝：海外主要生产国供应端分析
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-10 02:27