中泰期货晨会纪要-20251010

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 偏空: 沪锌、棕榈油、白糖、沪锡、沪金、沪铜、聚丙烯、热轧卷板、鸡蛋、锰硅、铁矿石、菜油、塑料、螺纹钢、豆二、焦煤、焦炭、沥青、PTA、玻璃、沪银、玉米淀粉 [6] - 震荡: 沪铅、PVC、豆油、甲醇、橡胶、玉米、沖铝 [6] - 偏多: 郑棉、菜粕、豆粕、橡胶 [6] Core Views of the Report - Macro: The cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached, China has implemented export controls on related items, and policies such as the adjustment of new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption requirements and the governance of price disorder have been introduced. The US government shutdown issue remains unresolved, and the Fed has different views on interest rate cuts [8][9][10] - Macro Finance: For stock index futures, consider buying on dips and focus on IH; for treasury bond futures, adopt an oscillatory approach and focus on the odds of short - term bonds [12][13] - Black Metals: Black metals are expected to maintain an oscillatory mid - term trend. Steel may experience an oscillatory or under - performing peak season. Double - coking prices may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term, and ferroalloys should be shorted on rallies in the medium - to - long term [16][17][18] - Soda Ash and Glass: Adopt a short - on - rallies approach for soda ash and a wait - and - see approach for glass [21] - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: For aluminum, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for alumina, consider shorting on rallies. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate, and industrial silicon and polysilicon will continue to oscillate within a range [23][24][25] - Agricultural Products: For cotton, short on rallies; for sugar, short on rallies in the medium - term and wait - and - see in the short - term. For eggs, short near - month contracts on rallies and adopt an oscillatory approach for far - month contracts. Go long on apples on dips, stay on the sidelines for corn, wait - and - see for red dates, and short near - month hog contracts on rallies [28][29][31] - Energy and Chemicals: Hold existing short positions in crude oil. Fuel oil, asphalt, and polyester chains are expected to follow the cost trend and be weak. For plastics, methanol, and caustic soda, adopt a weak - oscillatory approach. For liquefied petroleum gas, maintain a short - term bullish view and a long - term bearish view [37][38][44] Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Macro Information - International: A cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached. The US is selecting a new Fed chairman, and the US government shutdown bill has not passed. The Fed has different views on interest rate cuts, and spot silver prices have reached a high [8][9][10] - Domestic: China has implemented export controls on related items, adjusted new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption requirements, and issued a notice on governing price disorder. Some A - share stocks' margin trading conversion ratios have been adjusted to zero, and the property market during the holiday was generally flat [8][9] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Consider buying on dips and focus on IH. The A - share market was high on the first trading day after the holiday, with sector differentiation. Some stocks' margin trading conversion ratios were adjusted to zero [12] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Adopt an oscillatory approach and focus on the odds of short - term bonds. The capital market was balanced and loose, and the bond market was affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate [13][14] Black Metals - Policy: After the Politburo meeting in late July, the "anti - involution" policy cooled down. Pay attention to relevant meetings in October [16] - Market Rhythm: The peak season is approaching, but the real demand improvement for steel is limited. The market may oscillate or have an under - performing peak season [16] - Supply and Demand: Real estate demand is weak, while coil demand is okay. Steel mills' profits are low, and raw material costs are oscillating [16] - Trend: Black metals are expected to oscillate in the medium term. Steel spot prices vary in different regions, and iron ore trading volume has increased [17] - Coal and Coke: Double - coking prices may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term, and pay attention to the demand for finished products in the "Golden September and Silver October" [17] - Ferroalloys: Short on rallies in the medium - to - long term. The spread between silicon iron and manganese silicon is not currently worth participating in [18] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: Adopt a short - on - rallies approach. Inventory has increased, production is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve [21] - Glass: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Inventory has increased, and the market is affected by the macro environment and demand [21] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Aluminum prices are high, demand is average, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [23] - Alumina: Consider shorting on rallies. Supply is high, inventory is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [23] Lithium Carbonate - Trend: Oscillate. Supply is approaching its peak, and demand is in the peak season, resulting in a de - stocking state [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Oscillate within a range. Consider going long on far - month contracts at the lower range limit [25] - Polysilicon: Oscillate within a range. The industry is affected by policies and terminal feedback [25][26] Agricultural Products Cotton - Strategy: Short on rallies. Supply is increasing, demand is uncertain, and the market is expected to be under pressure [28][29] Sugar - Strategy: Short on rallies in the medium - term and wait - and - see in the short - term. Global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestic production may be affected by weather [29][30] Eggs - Strategy: Short near - month contracts on rallies and adopt an oscillatory approach for far - month contracts. Supply is high, demand is weak, and the market is in a surplus state [31] Apples - Strategy: Go long on dips. The opening price of new - season apples is expected to be high, and pay attention to the impact of weather on quality [33] Corn - Strategy: Stay on the sidelines and sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. New - season supply is increasing, and prices are under pressure [34] Red Dates - Strategy: Wait - and - see. The market price is stable, and the opening price is expected to be high [35] Hogs - Strategy: Short near - month contracts on rallies. The market is in a state of high supply and low demand after the holidays [35] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Trend: Prices are expected to decline. OPEC+ is increasing production, demand is weakening, and existing short positions can be held [37] Fuel Oil - Trend: Follow the oil price trend. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors [38] Plastics - Trend: Weakly oscillate. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak [38] Rubber - Trend: Oscillate. The raw material price has support and pressure, and it is affected by multiple factors [39] Methanol - Trend: Weakly oscillate. Port inventory is high, and the supply - demand pattern is weak [39][40] Caustic Soda - Trend: Bearish. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied [40] Asphalt - Trend: Follow the oil price trend. The spot price has declined, and the demand peak season is critical [41] Polyester Industry Chain - Trend: Follow the cost and be weak. Supply pressure is high, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [42][43] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Trend: Bearish in the long - term. Supply is abundant, and demand may weaken [44]