格林大华期货早盘提示：瓶片-20251010

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View - After the holiday, the supply of bottle chips increased, downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly, and the market was cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the decline of crude oil prices at night, the price of bottle chips fluctuated weakly following the raw material end, and the reference range of the main contract was 5,650 - 5,850 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or sell short on rallies [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情复盘] - The price of the PR2512 contract of bottle chips rose by 2 yuan to 5,728 yuan/ton yesterday. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips fell by 10 yuan to 5,740 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips fell by 10 yuan to 5,820 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 3,563 lots to 50,500 lots, and short positions increased by 5,075 lots to 49,300 lots [1]. [重要资讯] - Supply, cost, and profit: The domestic polyester bottle chip output was 331,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,300 tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 72.5%, a week - on - week increase of 4.4%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5,351 yuan, an increase of 14.2 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 185 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton [1]. - Export volume: In August 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 520,700 tons, a decrease of 58,800 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.3414 million tons [1]. - Crude oil prices: After the cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel, the international oil prices fell. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 11 dropped by 1.04 dollars/barrel to 61.51 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.66%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 12 dropped by 1.03 dollars/barrel to 65.22 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55%. The INE crude oil futures contract 2511 dropped by 11.8 to 468.7 yuan/barrel, and dropped by 4.5 to 464.2 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - Economic outlook: The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 would be 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate in 2026 would slow down to 2.9%, the same as the forecast in June [1]. [市场逻辑] - After the holiday, the supply of bottle chips increased, downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly, and the market was cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the decline of crude oil prices at night, the price of bottle chips fluctuated weakly following the raw material end, and the reference range of the main contract was 5,650 - 5,850 yuan/ton [1]. [交易策略] - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or sell short on rallies [1].