华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The rating for the building materials industry is "Oscillatory consolidation" [3]. - The rating for the aluminum industry is "Expected to be strong in the short - term and oscillatory, pay attention to macro - sentiment and mining news" [4]. 2. Core Views - For building materials, in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continues to decline. The winter storage this year is sluggish, and the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. - For aluminum, in the short - term, due to the continuous overseas interest - rate cut expectation, the favorable macro - atmosphere and stable fundamentals, the price is expected to remain oscillating at a high level. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]. 3. Summary according to Content For building materials - Production suspension situation: Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will suspend production from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total production of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and some will stop after January 20, affecting the daily output by about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - Real - estate transaction data: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3]. - Market situation: Building materials prices continued to decline and reached a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic sentiment, the price center moved down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. For aluminum - Production data: In September, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.14% year - on - year and decreased by 3.18% month - on - month. In September, the proportion of molten aluminum increased slightly, and in the first week of October, the overall start - up rate of aluminum processing adjusted seasonally with obvious internal differentiation [3]. - Sub - sectors of aluminum processing: The start - up rate of aluminum cables decreased due to logistics and price factors, but orders are strong and are expected to recover. The start - up rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, with weak new orders for building profiles and differentiated performance of industrial materials and photovoltaic frames. The start - up rate of aluminum sheets and strips decreased by 1 percentage point, affected by capital and accounts receivable. The start - up rate of aluminum foil decreased slightly, with stable demand for industrial products but weakening peak - season momentum [3]. - Inventory situation: On October 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 649,000 tons, an increase of 57,000 tons from September 29 and 32,000 tons from September 25. The destocking in September was less than expected, and the premium of electrolytic aluminum may face pressure in the early post - festival period. In October, some northern enterprises expect to increase the proportion of molten aluminum, and the ingot - casting volume is expected to remain low, supporting the aluminum price [3].