锌：海外延续去库，伦锌表现偏强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro: On October 9th, some senior Fed officials preferred to keep interest rates unchanged last month, highlighting concerns that high inflation still threatens the US economy. Despite a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September, the Fed meeting minutes showed that "a few" FOMC members would have supported keeping rates unchanged as inflation might stay above the target. The rise in inflation this year has "stalled" progress towards the 2% target, and some members worried about a rise in long - term inflation expectations if inflation doesn't return to the target in time [6]. - Fundamentals: Driven by LME zinc, SHFE zinc has risen slightly recently, mainly due to optimistic macro sentiment and continuous inventory reduction overseas. In the short - term, domestic smelters prefer domestic zinc concentrates due to better profits, leading to a decrease in domestic concentrate processing fees and an increase in imported concentrate processing fees. The large inventory difference between domestic and overseas has widened the refined zinc import loss, and attention should be paid to the opening of the refined zinc export window. In the long - term, on the supply side, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased, and refined zinc output has expanded, leading to a rapid increase in domestic social inventories. Overseas, high - cost smelters are under great loss pressure due to the record - low long - term processing fees, resulting in production cuts and continuous reduction of LME inventories. The widening import loss of refined zinc reflects the different situations between domestic and overseas smelting. Globally, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is gradually becoming looser. Although the transmission from ore production increase to smelting expansion is delayed by overseas smelter production cuts, considering the sufficient domestic smelting capacity, the increase in global zinc ore output will eventually lead to an increase in refined zinc production. On the demand side, it remains relatively stable, mainly maintaining the existing volume. With supply increasing and demand stable, there is a tendency of oversupply in the long - term zinc supply - demand balance [6]. - Strategy: The pattern of a stronger overseas and weaker domestic market continues. The import loss of refined zinc has widened close to the point of opening the export window. The outflow of domestic refined zinc can help stop the LME inventory reduction. It is still advisable to consider short - selling on rallies for long - term positions [6]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Table of Contents Part 2: Industrial Fundamental - Supply Side - Zinc Concentrate Output: In July 2025, global zinc concentrate output was 1.0762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.28%. The 2025 international long - term zinc ore TC price is set at $80/ton, a record low and half of the previous year. However, the 2024 long - term TC was overestimated, and the marginal loosening trend of zinc ore supply remains unchanged [8]. - Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrates were 3.5033 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.02%. The increase in imports has pushed up processing fees. As of September 26th, the imported concentrate processing fee was reported at $115.9/ton, and the domestic concentrate processing fee was 3,650 yuan/ton, showing a differentiation between domestic and imported processing fees [11]. - Smelter Profit Estimation: The profit of domestic smelters using domestic concentrates is still good, while that of using imported concentrates has turned into a loss due to the domestic - overseas price ratio [14]. - Refined Zinc Output: In July 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1963 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In September 2025, domestic refined zinc output was 587,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 20%. The poor profit of imported concentrates and the tightening of recycled zinc raw materials led to a month - on - month decrease in output [17]. - Refined Zinc Import Profit and Imports: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 222,400 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed, and the import loss has widened to over 4,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the opening of the export window [20]. Part 3: Industrial Fundamental - Consumption Side - Refined Zinc Initial - Stage Consumption: In August 2025, domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.52%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption - Infrastructure and Real Estate: From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding power) decreased. The back - end of the real estate market has stabilized at a low level, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [27]. - Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption - Automobiles and Home Appliances: In August 2025, domestic automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.95%. With consumer loan interest subsidies and the release of a new round of national subsidies, home appliance consumption is expected to remain resilient [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - Inventory: There is a differentiation in absolute inventory levels between domestic and overseas. Attention should be paid to the outflow of domestic inventory to supplement LME inventory [32]. - Spot Premium: As of October 8th, the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was reported at a premium of $59.11/ton. Due to low LME inventory, the spot premium has increased. The domestic spot premium is low. On September 30th, abnormal trading of the near - month contract (Contract 10) near the closing led to abnormal price differences [35]. - Exchange Positions: As of October 3rd, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 28,894 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently stabilized [37].