塑料PP每日早盘观察-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The global plastic additives market is on an upward trajectory, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 3.2% in consumption from 2024 to 2029, driven by growth in plastic - consuming end - use sectors and influenced by changing policies [2] - The domestic PE and PP markets show different trends in capacity utilization, and shipping freight indices have an impact on polyolefin investment [2] - Events such as the US federal government shutdown and changes in import volumes affect the polyolefin market [5] - Policies like the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" and oil price fluctuations influence the market [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - L Plastic: L2601 contract prices and regional LLDPE prices fluctuate. For example, on 25 - 10 - 10, L2601 closed at 7153 points, down 28 points or 0.39%. Regional LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China showed weak adjustments [1] - PP Polypropylene: PP2601 contract prices and regional PP拉丝 prices also fluctuate. On 25 - 10 - 10, PP2601 closed at 6852 points, down 51 points or 0.74%. Domestic PP market prices declined [1] Important Information - The global plastic additives market is growing, and the consumption of plastic additives is expected to increase at a CAGR of 3.2% from 2024 to 2029 [2] - The US federal government shutdown in October 2025 caused economic losses, with an estimated weekly loss of about $15 billion [5] - Seven departments issued the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added - value [8] Logical Analysis - Domestic PE capacity utilization has increased for 4 consecutive weeks, reaching 83.9%, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Domestic PP capacity utilization has increased for 3 consecutive weeks, reaching 77.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2] - In August 2025, the net import of polyethylene decreased to 83.4 million tons, and that of polypropylene was - 2.9 million tons, with a difference of 86.3 million tons, which is favorable for the L - PP spread [5] - In September 2025, Brent crude oil rose to $67.6 per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%, which is negative for L [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Different strategies are recommended for L and PP contracts on different dates. For example, on 25 - 10 - 10, the L 01 contract should be watched, and the PP 01 contract should be lightly short - tried [2] - Arbitrage (Long - Short): Hold the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set stop - losses at appropriate levels. For example, on 25 - 10 - 10, the spread was +313 points [2][3] - Options: Generally, the option strategy is to watch [2][3][6]