国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251010

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Weak or Bearish Outlook: p-Xylene, PTA, MEG, asphalt, methanol, urea, fuel oil [2][10][19][54][59][80] - Neutral Outlook: LLDPE, PP, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, glass, benzene, styrene, soda ash, PVC, LPG, propylene, low-sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line) [2][16][33][37][46][63][66][70][77][80][82] - Bullish Outlook: rubber [2][12] Core Views - The polyester industry chain continues to face challenges with weak sales and high temperatures delaying the start of autumn and winter orders, leading to a negative feedback loop and weak valuations for PX [10]. - After the holiday, the coal-based ethylene glycol plants resumed operation, and the port inventory increased, indicating supply pressure and a weak short-term trend [10]. - Although the Hengli 1 PTA plant's maintenance was implemented after the holiday, the supply in East China remains excessive, and the market is waiting for the recovery of autumn and winter orders [10]. - The rubber market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, supported by cost factors and reduced inventory [12][13][15]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with limited spot price fluctuations and a narrowing downside space in the medium term, but facing supply pressure [16][17][18]. - The asphalt market is expected to be weak, following the trend of oil prices, with changes in production, inventory, and demand [19][32]. - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be range-bound in the medium term, with changes in supply, demand, and prices [33][34][37][38]. - The caustic soda market is suppressed by weak reality but strongly supported by costs, with potential for price increases depending on alumina inventory [41][43]. - The paper pulp market is expected to be range-bound, with weak market sentiment and limited downstream demand [46][49][50]. - The glass market has shown price differentiation, with some areas rising and some stable, and the market trading has gradually recovered [51][52]. - The methanol market is expected to be weak, with high supply, high inventory, and high profits in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of winter gas restrictions in the Middle East [54][57]. - The urea market is expected to be weak, with high domestic supply pressure and weak domestic demand, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 11-05 or 01-05 reverse spreads [59][61][62]. - The benzene styrene market is expected to be range-bound in the short term, with high inventory and low profit, and there is a possibility of market speculation based on low valuations [63][64]. - The soda ash market is expected to be range-bound, with stable prices, a slight decrease in supply, and weak downstream demand [66][68]. - The LPG market has a weak cost side, and attention should be paid to the risk of a rebound at low levels; the propylene market is in a tight supply-demand balance, and spot prices are supported [70]. - The PVC market is expected to be range-bound at low levels, with high production, high inventory, and weak downstream demand, and the export growth rate may slow down [77]. - The fuel oil market remains weak, with short-term adjustments, and the price difference between high and low sulfur in the external market continues to narrow [80]. - For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to enter a long position in the 2-4 positive spread with a light position [82]. Summary by Related Catalogs p-Xylene, PTA, MEG - PX: The futures price closed at 6562 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The spot price was 808.83 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars/ton. Korean and Malaysian plants restarted, while a Japanese plant shut down for maintenance. The market is expected to be weak in the medium term due to weak polyester sales and falling oil prices [5]. - PTA: The futures price closed at 4584 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The spot price was 4500 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. Northeast and East China plants carried out maintenance and reduced loads. The market is expected to be weak in the medium term due to oversupply and weak demand [5][7]. - MEG: The futures price closed at 4158 yuan/ton, down 1.16%. The spot price was 4214 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 9.8 tons to 50.7 tons. The market is expected to be weak in the short term due to increased supply and inventory [5][8]. Rubber - The futures price of the main contract closed at 15,415 yuan/ton during the day and 15,435 yuan/ton at night, up 382 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 78,468 hands to 169,768 hands, and the open interest decreased by 378 hands to 140,720 hands. The inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.47 tons to 45.65 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.5 tons to 108.8 tons. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [13][15]. Synthetic Rubber - The futures price of the main contract closed at 11,325 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 35,576 hands to 74,867 hands, and the open interest decreased by 1,801 hands to 31,413 hands. The domestic butadiene market declined slightly, and the synthetic rubber market followed the sector with a slight rebound. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term [16][17]. Asphalt - The futures price of the BU2511 contract closed at 3,375 yuan/ton, down 2.63%. The trading volume decreased by 43,041 hands to 109,080 hands, and the open interest decreased by 25,859 hands to 107,006 hands. The weekly production decreased by 4.6 tons to 62.3 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The factory inventory increased by 7.9% to 75.1 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 8.4% to 148.0 tons. The market is expected to be weak, following the trend of oil prices [19][32]. LLDPE - The futures price of the L2601 contract closed at 7,077 yuan/ton, down 1.10%. The trading volume was 264,961 hands, and the open interest increased by 20,384 hands. The spot price decreased by 20 - 70 yuan/ton. The market is expected to be range-bound in the medium term, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [33][34]. PP - The futures price of the PP2601 contract closed at 6,745 yuan/ton, down 1.86%. The trading volume was 338,214 hands, and the open interest increased by 39,458 hands. The spot price decreased by 30 - 80 yuan/ton. The market is expected to be range-bound in the medium term, with short-term demand improvement and supply-side adjustments [37][38]. Caustic Soda - The futures price of the 01 contract was 2,450 yuan/ton, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the demand was average, and some prices increased slightly. The market is suppressed by weak reality but strongly supported by costs [41][42][43]. Paper Pulp - The futures price of the main contract closed at 4,804 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 77,325 hands to 112,264 hands, and the open interest decreased by 375 hands to 131,891 hands. The market is expected to be range-bound, with weak market sentiment and limited downstream demand [48][49][50]. Glass - The futures price of the FG601 contract closed at 1,218 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. The trading volume was 1,452,047 hands, and the open interest increased by 160,754 hands. The spot price in some areas increased, and in some areas, it remained stable. The market trading has gradually recovered [52]. Methanol - The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,290 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 545,698 hands, and the open interest increased by 111,889 hands. The spot price decreased, and the market is expected to be weak, with high supply, high inventory, and high profits in the short term [55][57]. Urea - The futures price of the main contract closed at 1,609 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 253,715 hands, and the open interest increased by 43,221 hands. The enterprise inventory increased by 21.22 tons to 144.39 tons, a 17.23% increase. The market is expected to be weak, with high supply pressure and weak domestic demand [60][61][62]. Benzene Styrene - The futures price of the 2512 contract closed at 6,848 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term, with high inventory and low profit, and there is a possibility of market speculation based on low valuations [63][64]. Soda Ash - The futures price of the SA2601 contract closed at 1,250 yuan/ton, down 1.73%. The trading volume was 756,398 hands, and the open interest increased by 67,093 hands. The spot price remained stable, and the market is expected to be range-bound, with a slight decrease in supply and weak downstream demand [68]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: The futures price of the PG2511 contract closed at 4,072 yuan/ton, down 3.89%. The market has a weak cost side, and attention should be paid to the risk of a rebound at low levels [70]. - Propylene: The market is in a tight supply-demand balance, and spot prices are supported [70]. PVC - The futures price of the 01 contract was 4,769 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 4,640 yuan/ton. The market is expected to be range-bound at low levels, with high production, high inventory, and weak downstream demand [77]. Fuel Oil - High-Sulfur Fuel Oil: The futures price of the FU2511 contract closed at 3,007 yuan/ton, down 2.98%. - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: The futures price of the LU2511 contract closed at 3,356 yuan/ton, down 3.51%. The market remains weak, with short-term adjustments, and the price difference between high and low sulfur in the external market continues to narrow [80]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The futures price of the EC2510 contract closed at 1,119.9 points, down 0.20%. The SCFIS European route index decreased by 6.6% to 1,046.50 points. It is recommended to enter a long position in the 2-4 positive spread with a light position [82].