格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20251010

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - After the post-holiday price increase, the upward momentum is limited. As the supply and demand report of Malaysian palm oil is released, all the positive factors will be realized. Short - term long positions should take profits and exit. For the two - meal market, short - term rebounds can be participated in, with limited rebound height, waiting for subsequent short - selling opportunities [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Agricultural, Forestry and Livestock - Three Oils Market Performance - On October 9, driven by the resurgence of the Indonesian B50 concept, palm oil led the rally in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices and daily changes of various contracts are as follows: the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8332 yuan/ton, up 2.36% day - on - day, with a daily decrease of 8109 lots; the second - main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8074 yuan/ton, up 2.25% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 5157 lots; the main palm oil contract P2601 closed at 9570 yuan/ton, up 3.17% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 46907 lots; the second - main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 9360 yuan/ton, up 3.59% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 7060 lots; the main rapeseed oil contract OI2601 closed at 10248 yuan/ton, up 2.03% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 25710 lots; the second - main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 9729 yuan/ton, up 2.18% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 254 lots [1] Important Information - NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on Thursday after Israel and Hamas signed a Gaza ceasefire agreement - After Argentina suspended the export tax on grains, about 40 ships of Argentine soybeans were registered for export in November and December, mostly to China. These purchases affected US soybean export sales. Argentina restored the export tax on Thursday - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release its official monthly report on October 10. An industry survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production - On October 7, an energy ministry official said that after completing laboratory tests, Indonesia has taken another step towards the B50 biodiesel policy and plans to launch it next year. The implementation of the B50 policy requires 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, while the current B40 policy requires 15.6 million kiloliters - Data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) in Malaysia shows that from October 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.55% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 11.61% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.18% month - on - month - As of the end of the 39th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.6186 million tons, a weekly decrease of 58,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.19%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.18%. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.4608 million tons, a weekly decrease of 13,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.87%; the edible palm oil inventory was 507,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 31,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.16%; the rapeseed oil inventory was 650,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 14,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.22% [1] Market Logic - Internationally, oil prices fell, and US soybean oil was under pressure. Indonesia accelerated the R & D and promotion of B50, and the market expected a decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September, so Malaysian palm oil showed a strong trend. Domestically, after the pre - holiday stocking ended, market demand weakened. In terms of supply, the recent operating rate of factories was around 65%, with high soybean oil production. Many factories operated normally during the long holiday, and the soybean oil inventory in factories may increase after the holiday. The estimated soybean imports from September to October are about 20 million tons, so the short - term supply of soybean oil exceeds demand. Palm oil mainly follows the international market trend. After the pre - holiday stocking, the rapeseed oil market had a slight decline in the futures market, but due to the expected tight supply gap in the macro - logic, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still decreasing, and the strong fundamentals support the firm price of rapeseed oil [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Short - term long positions should take profits and exit, and the long - term upward space is limited. The resistance level of the Y2601 contract is 9000, and the support level is 8000; the resistance level of the Y2605 contract is 8400, and the support level is 7740; the resistance level of the P2601 contract is 10000, and the support level is 8720; the resistance level of the P2605 contract is 10000, and the support level is 8610; the resistance level of the OI2601 contract is 12000, and the support level is 9680; the resistance level of the OI2605 contract is 12000, and the support level is 9270. Arbitrage: None [2] Two Meals Market Performance - On October 9, driven by the rebound of US soybean products during the National Day holiday, the rebound of domestic double - meal futures was blocked. The main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at a certain price (not fully provided), up 0.38% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 4912 lots; the second - main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2755 yuan/ton, up 0.62% day - on - day, with a daily decrease of 5870 lots; the main rapeseed meal contract RM2601 closed at 2435 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 3338 lots; the second - main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2334 yuan/ton, up 0.73% day - on - day, with a daily decrease of 1705 lots [2] Important Information - As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean reached 9% of the total sown area, higher than 3.2% a week ago and 4% in the same period last year - Analysts expect that the net export sales volume of US 2025/26 soybeans in the week ending October 2, 2025, will be between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons. However, due to the US government shutdown since October 1, the US Department of Agriculture has postponed the release of the weekly export sales report indefinitely - The Trump administration is expected to announce a plan this week to rescue US farmers affected by the trade war and price drops, with preliminary spending possibly reaching up to $15 billion - As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to reach 102.2 million tons, exceeding the total annual volume of 2024 and 2023 - As of the end of the 39th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.911 million tons, an increase of 295,000 tons from last week's 7.616 million tons, compared with 6.574 million tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 7.721 million tons. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from last week's 66,000 tons, compared with 456,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 103,000 tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.274 million tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last week's 1.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.20%; the contract volume was 4.021 million tons, a decrease of 1.489 million tons from last week's 5.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.02%. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal was 17,000 tons, the same as last week, a month - on - month flat; the contract volume was 28,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week's 25,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00% - Dongguan COFCO started pre - selling Australian rapeseed meal for the first quarter of next year. Although the news that some companies obtained the gene certificate for Australian rapeseed is not true, it is expected that Australian rapeseed meal will enter the Chinese market soon, which is bearish for the rapeseed meal futures market [2][3] Market Logic - Internationally, due to the US government shutdown, USDA data release is suspended indefinitely. The US government plans to subsidize soybean farmers with $15 billion, putting pressure on the overall trend of US soybeans. The US president said that he will discuss soybean issues with China soon. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the near - month basis remained stable. After the holiday, oil mills resumed production one after another. Feed and breeding enterprises stocked up a lot before to prevent trade tariff risks, with high inventory; at the same time, the inventory reduction of oil mills was slow, and traders mainly executed contracts. For rapeseed meal, after the holiday opening, the market sentiment was unstable, and end - users mainly waited and adjusted, with limited actual transactions. As the peak season of aquaculture is approaching the end, the demand for rapeseed meal is also limited, resulting in a situation of tight supply and demand [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Participate in short - term rebounds, noting that the rebound height is limited, and the medium - to - long - term trend is bearish. The resistance level of the M2601 contract is 3250, and the support level is 2894; the resistance level of the M2605 contract is 2900, and the support level is 2680; the resistance level of the RM2601 contract is 2858, and the support level is 2430; the resistance level of the RM2605 contract is 2750, and the support level is 2270. Arbitrage: None [3]