油脂日报：预期B50计划实施，棕榈油价格上涨-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan in the second half of 2026 will significantly increase palm oil consumption and support palm oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures Prices: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,570 yuan/ton, up 342 yuan or 3.71% from the previous day; the soybean oil 2601 contract closed at 8,332 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan or 2.36%; the rapeseed oil 2601 contract closed at 10,248 yuan/ton, up 204 yuan or 2.03% [1] - Spot Prices: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan or 4.07%, with a spot basis of P01 + -120 yuan, up 28 yuan. In Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan or 2.77%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 188 yuan, up 38 yuan. In Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,500 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan or 2.14%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 252 yuan, up 16 yuan [1] - Import Prices: Argentina's soybean oil (November shipment) C&F price was 1,114 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton from the previous day; (January shipment) was 1,107 dollars/ton, down 17 dollars/ton. Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) C&F price was 1,095 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; (January shipment) was 1,075 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton. Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price was 510 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton; (January shipment) was 520 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton. US Gulf soybeans (November shipment) C&F price was 459 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton; US West soybeans (November shipment) was 438 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton; Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) was 483 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton [2] - Import Premiums: Mexican Gulf (November shipment) soybean import premium was 220 cents/bushel, down 12 cents/bushel; US West Coast (November shipment) was 165 cents/bushel, unchanged; Brazilian ports (November shipment) was 285 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] - Supply and Demand: In the 2024/25 market year, China's edible vegetable oil production was 3,144 million tons. Due to increased production, the import volume of edible vegetable oil in 2024/25 was reduced by 500,000 tons to 7.06 million tons, with palm oil and sunflower oil imports reduced by 300,000 tons and 200,000 tons respectively. The average ex - factory prices of national standard third - grade soybean oil, third - grade rapeseed oil, and first - grade peanut oil in 2024/25 were 8,089 yuan/ton, 9,585 yuan/ton, and 14,635 yuan/ton respectively, all within the estimated range. There were no adjustments to the supply - demand forecast data for China's edible vegetable oil in 2025/26 [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4]