中辉期货豆粕日报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short - term Volatility: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - Short - term Bullish: Palm oil, Soybean oil [1] - Bullish: Rapeseed oil [1] - Cautiously Bearish: Cotton, Red dates, Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term volatility is expected due to the intersection of long and short factors such as the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade negotiations, and dry weather in Brazilian soybean planting. The adjustment space is limited before the Sino - US negotiations start [1][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: It is expected to show short - term volatility, following the trend of soybean meal. Trade policies and high inventory lead to the intersection of long and short factors. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation still takes time, and the positive impact is limited [1][6]. - Palm Oil: Short - term bullish. The Indonesian government's bio - fuel policies are expected to increase future demand, but the absence of the Southeast Asian减产 season may limit the continuous upward space [1][8]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term bullish, mainly following the palm oil market. The US government shutdown and other factors have led to an optimistic sentiment in the US soybean market [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: It is expected to run strongly. Low oil mill operating rates, market sentiment of hoarding and price - holding, and the consumption peak season, along with the hype of palm oil's bio - fuel concept, support its bullish trend [1]. - Cotton: Cautiously bearish. The supply of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is increasing, and the demand has not improved significantly. In the domestic market, new cotton harvesting is progressing, and the demand outlook is weak [1][10][11]. - Red Dates: Cautiously bearish. Considering the expected production and inventory, there is still pressure after the new fruits are listed. Although the concern about quality is gradually alleviated, there may be significant price fluctuations due to weather speculation [1][15]. - Live Pigs: Cautiously bearish. The supply pressure is strong due to the active slaughter of large farms and increased slaughter by retail farmers. The terminal demand is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking [1][17]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Inventory and Consumption: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 938500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40200 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 719910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25250 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 118920 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6080 tons [3]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract was 2939 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 3025.14 yuan/ton. The basis of different contracts and cross - variety spreads showed certain changes [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory and Production: As of September 26, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 2600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 250 tons [6]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract was 2435 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 2593.16 yuan/ton. The basis and cross - variety spreads changed [5]. Palm Oil - Inventory and Production: As of September 26, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 552200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32900 tons. The Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% compared with the previous month [8]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract was 9570 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 9555 yuan/ton. The cross - period and cross - variety spreads showed changes [7]. Cotton - Supply and Demand: Internationally, the supply pressure of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is increasing, and the export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton harvesting is ongoing, and the demand is weak [10][11]. - Price and Spread: The futures prices of different contracts showed small increases, and the basis and cross - period spreads changed. The cotton profit of textile enterprises decreased, and the开机 rates of spinning mills and weaving factories were relatively stable [9]. Red Dates - Production and Inventory: The estimated new - season production is 560000 - 620000 tons, a decrease compared with previous years. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons compared with the previous period [15]. - Price and Spread: The futures prices of different contracts increased slightly, and the basis and cross - period spreads changed. The arrival volume in Guangdong increased [13]. Live Pigs - Supply and Demand: In the short term, the supply pressure is strong due to the large - scale enterprises'出栏 pressure and the increase in the number of slaughtered pigs. The terminal demand is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking [17]. - Price and Spread: The futures prices of different contracts decreased, and the basis, cross - period spreads, and other indicators changed. The national sample enterprises'生猪存栏 and出栏 increased slightly [16].