中辉有色观点-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Silver: Callback to go long (★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Zinc: Rebound (★), with a view of selling on rallies in the medium - long term [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: Rise and then fall (★) [1] - Aluminum: Rise and then fall (★) [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish (★) [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish (★) [1] Core Views - For precious metals, the geopolitical situation and central bank gold - buying support long - term prices, but short - term adjustments occur due to events like the cease - fire in the Middle East [1][3] - For base metals, supply - demand imbalances lead to different price trends. For example, copper is long - term bullish due to supply shortages and strong demand, while zinc is a bearish configuration in the medium - long term due to increasing supply and weakening demand [1][7][11] - For new energy metals like lithium carbonate, policy expectations and demand support prices, but attention should be paid to supply - side factors such as mine复产 [1][23] Summary by Variety Gold - Market situation: After the cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, the safe - haven sentiment partially withdrew, and gold adjusted from its high level [2] - Logic: Factors such as the US government shutdown, political uncertainties in France and Japan, and central bank gold - buying support the long - term rise of gold prices. The cease - fire in the Middle East causes short - term adjustments [3] - Strategy: Long - term positions should be held. Short - term investors can buy on dips. Domestic gold may test the 900 support level [1][4] Silver - Market situation: It fluctuates greatly following gold, with a significant drop after reaching a high [1] - Logic: Global policy stimulus leads to strong demand and an obvious supply - demand gap, supporting long - term prices. Gold price fluctuations impact the silver market [1] - Strategy: Short - term investors can try to go long, and long - term investors should hold [1] Copper - Market situation: Shanghai copper reached the 88,000 - yuan mark and then quickly fell back, while LME copper was close to its historical high [7] - Logic: Supply shortages due to mine accidents and production cuts, along with strong demand from emerging industries, drive up prices. However, high prices suppress short - term demand [7] - Strategy: Hold existing long positions with trailing stops. New long positions should wait for a pull - back to stabilize. Long - term bullish. Shanghai copper focus range is [84,500, 88,500] yuan/ton, and LME copper is [10,000, 11,000] dollars/ton [1][8] Zinc - Market situation: Zinc prices rose overnight and then fell back, with LME zinc back above the 3,000 - dollar mark. The domestic and overseas trends are divergent, with the domestic market being weaker [11] - Logic: Domestic supply is relatively loose, while overseas inventories are low. Demand from real estate and infrastructure is weak, but export may increase [11] - Strategy: In the short term, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. Sell - hedging can be arranged on rallies. In the medium - long term, it is a bearish configuration. Shanghai zinc focus range is [22,000, 22,600] yuan/ton, and LME zinc is [2,900, 3,100] dollars/ton [12] Aluminum - Market situation: Aluminum prices rose and then fell, while alumina continued to be weak [14] - Logic: There is an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. The domestic aluminum inventory increased during the holiday, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [15] - Strategy: In the short term, take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate. The main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is [20,600 - 21,500] [16] Nickel - Market situation: Nickel prices rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel prices slightly declined [18] - Logic: The supply of nickel ore is relatively sufficient, and the domestic pure nickel inventory increased slightly. The downstream consumption season is uncertain, and the inventory of stainless steel increased [19] - Strategy: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [121,000 - 125,000] [20] Lithium Carbonate - Market situation: The main contract LC2511 rose and then fell back, with the late - session gain narrowing [22] - Logic: Policy requirements and export controls impact the market. The production of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the battery industry is relatively stable, which supports the price [23] - Strategy: Try to go long on dips in the range of [72,800 - 74,500] [24]