中辉能化观点-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [3] - Ethylene glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [5] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [5] 2. Report's Core Views - The core driver of the energy and chemical industry is the supply - demand imbalance, with supply often exceeding demand in the off - season, leading to downward pressure on prices. For most products, there are short - term trading opportunities based on cost fluctuations, and long - term trends are affected by factors such as new capacity, inventory, and policy [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude oil - Market performance: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.47%, Brent up 1.22%, and SC with no quote due to the holiday [6]. - Basic logic: On October 5th, OPEC+ planned to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The core driver is off - season supply surplus, and oil prices are likely to be pressured to around $60 [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to increase, while EIA forecasts show global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude oil inventory rose in the week ending October 3rd [8]. - Strategy: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [470 - 485] for SC [9]. LPG - Market performance: On October 9th, the PG main contract closed at 4,078 yuan/ton, down 5.05% [11]. - Basic logic: The cost side is pressured by the decline in oil prices and the reduction of Saudi CP contract prices. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand in some sectors has decreased [12]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4150 - 4250] for PG [13]. L - Market performance: The L2601 contract closed at 7,077 yuan/ton, down 1.1% [16]. - Basic logic: It follows cost fluctuations, with weakening cost support. After the holiday, inventory increased, and the supply - demand pattern is strong on both sides but with limited upward drive [18]. - Strategy: It runs weakly in the short term. Focus on the lower support level and wait for dips to test long positions. Focus on the range of [7000 - 7150] [18]. PP - Market performance: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,745 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [21]. - Basic logic: Cost factors such as crude oil and propane are weak. After - holiday inventory increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose with high de - stocking pressure [23]. - Strategy: The industry can hedge at high prices. Focus on the lower support level and wait for dips to test long positions. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6800] [23]. PVC - Market performance: The V2601 contract closed at 4,839 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [25]. - Basic logic: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and inventory has increased significantly after the holiday. The supply - demand pattern is loose, but the decline in spot prices is limited due to low valuation [27]. - Strategy: The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose. Focus on the lower support level and conduct range operations. Focus on the range of [4700 - 4850] [27]. PX - Market performance: On September 30th, the PX spot price was 6,624 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton [30]. - Basic logic: Supply has slightly increased, while demand is expected to weaken due to PTA maintenance. Macro factors such as high US crude oil inventory and OPEC+ production increase put pressure on oil prices, and PX is expected to be weak [31]. - Strategy: Partially close short positions. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6520 - 6630] for PX511 [32]. PTA - Market performance: On September 30th, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [34]. - Basic logic: Supply pressure is expected to ease due to increased maintenance, and demand has improved recently. However, the cost side is pressured by oil prices, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [34]. - Strategy: Gradually close short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4530 - 4610] for TA01 [35]. MEG - Market performance: On September 30th, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [37]. - Basic logic: Domestic plants have slightly increased production, and overseas plants have changed little. Terminal demand has improved, but new capacity and supply recovery may lead to inventory accumulation in the future. It follows cost fluctuations and is expected to be weak [38]. - Strategy: Gradually close short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4125 - 4185] for EG01 [39]. Methanol - Market performance: On September 30th, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,290 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [42]. - Basic logic: Supply pressure remains high as maintenance plants resume production. Demand has improved, especially in the MTO sector. Social inventory is decreasing, and cost support is stabilizing [43]. - Strategy: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2280 - 2320] for MA01 [45]. Urea - Market performance: On September 30th, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton [47]. - Basic logic: Supply is relatively loose as plants resume production. Domestic demand is weak, but fertilizer exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [48]. - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on dips in the long term [3]. Natural gas - Market performance: As of October 3rd, the number of US natural gas rigs increased by 1 to 118 [5]. - Basic logic: Supply is relatively sufficient, but the increase in combustion demand with the cooling weather and winter gas storage provide some support for gas prices [5]. - Strategy: Cautiously bearish [5]. Asphalt - Market performance: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - Basic logic: The cost side is pressured by the increase in crude oil supply surplus, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Valuation is high [5]. - Strategy: Hold short positions [5]. Glass - Market performance: Some regional spot prices have risen, and factory inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks [5]. - Basic logic: Supply is under pressure as daily melting volume remains high, and demand from the real - estate sector is weak. Focus on the downstream restocking during the peak season [5]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the alkali - glass spread in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5]. Soda ash - Market performance: Spot prices have risen slightly, and the basis has strengthened [5]. - Basic logic: Supply is expected to be loose as summer maintenance ends and plants resume production. Demand is mostly for rigid needs, and enterprise inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks [5]. - Strategy: The industry can hedge at high prices and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5].