Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the domestic rubber dumping news was confirmed before the holiday, negative news was exhausted, and market pessimism decreased. During the holiday, rainfall in Thailand decreased, and raw material prices declined slightly. Supported by demand, the decline in raw material prices was small. With the reduction of rainfall, the output of natural rubber is expected to continue to rise. The return of the heavy - truck sales growth in September in China and the resumption of tire factory operating rates after the long - holiday will lead to a situation of strong supply and demand for natural rubber. NR may rebound due to its large previous decline, while RU still has inventory pressure. The short - term price difference between RU and NR is expected to narrow. For BR, although there are still device overhauls in October, the overall supply remains abundant. After the long - holiday, the increase in tire factory operating rates will support the price of BR, but the price of upstream butadiene raw materials may have a negative impact [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,415 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,465 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,325 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Heavy - truck Sales - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August 2025 and an 82% increase from the 58,000 vehicles in the same period last year [2] Rubber Imports - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 4.73% increase from the previous month and a 7.79% increase year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 5.373 million tons, a 19.06% cumulative increase year - on - year [2] Tire Exports - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 650,000 tons, a 5.1% increase year - on - year; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a 4.6% increase year - on - year. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a 4.8% increase year - on - year; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase year - on - year. In terms of quantity, the export volume was 47.86 billion pieces, a 5.6% increase year - on - year [2] Automobile Production, Sales and Exports - From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% increase year - on - year, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a 13.7% increase year - on - year. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, an 87.3% increase year - on - year [3] Rubber Exports from Cote d'Ivoire - According to QinRex data, in the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume from Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase from the 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 9, 2025, the RU basis was - 715 yuan/ton (- 35), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 565 yuan/ton (+ 135), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 2,969 yuan/ton (+ 329.89), the NR basis was 760.00 yuan/ton (- 72.00); the price of whole - latex was 14,700 yuan/ton (+ 350), the price of mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 250), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (+ 40), the spread between whole - latex and 3L was - 550 yuan/ton (+ 250); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,050 yuan/ton (+ 250) [3] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.47 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.47), the price of Thai glue was 53.90 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.45), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.45) [4][5] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.39% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.64% (- 0.10%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 149,810 tons (+ 390), and the NR futures inventory was 42,034 tons (- 908) [6] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and Spreads: On October 9, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (- 175), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,250 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of private - owned butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,100 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,773 yuan/ton (unchanged) [6] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 72.95% (+ 2.90%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (unchanged), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (unchanged) [6] Strategy - Natural Rubber (RU and NR): Maintain a neutral view. After the domestic rubber dumping news was confirmed before the holiday, negative news was exhausted, and market pessimism decreased. During the holiday, rainfall in Thailand decreased, and raw material prices declined slightly. Supported by demand, the decline in raw material prices was small. With the reduction of rainfall, the output of natural rubber is expected to continue to rise. The return of the heavy - truck sales growth in September in China and the resumption of tire factory operating rates after the long - holiday will lead to a situation of strong supply and demand for natural rubber. NR may rebound due to its large previous decline, while RU still has inventory pressure. The short - term price difference between RU and NR is expected to narrow [7] - Butadiene Rubber (BR): Maintain a neutral view. There are still device overhauls for the upstream of butadiene rubber in October, and the output may be the same as in September. However, the overall operating rate of butadiene rubber this year is still at a high level compared to the same period last year, and the abundant supply situation remains unchanged. After the long - holiday, the increase in tire factory operating rates will support the price of butadiene rubber, but the price of upstream butadiene raw materials may have a negative impact [7]
化工日报：9月国内重卡销量继续回升-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-10 05:10