新装置投产，聚烯烃供应压力增加

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for L and PP [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the accumulation of petrochemical inventory, new device production, and weak cost - side support drive the downward trend of polyolefins. For PE, the supply increases significantly, while the demand improvement is limited, and the cost - side support weakens. For PP, the supply is restricted by high raw material prices and maintenance, the demand recovery is slow, and the cost support is weak. Overall, the weak demand restricts the upward space of polyolefins, and PP's profit level also limits its downward space [2][3]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 7077 yuan/ton (-76), and that of the PP main contract is 6745 yuan/ton (-107). LL North China spot is 7000 yuan/ton (-120), LL East China spot is 7140 yuan/ton (+0), and PP East China spot is 6750 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -77 yuan/ton (-44), LL East China basis is 63 yuan/ton (+76), and PP East China basis is 5 yuan/ton (+107) [1]. - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate is 83.9% (+1.9%), and PP operating rate is 77.7% (+1.1%) [1]. - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit is 247.7 yuan/ton (+72.5), PP oil - based production profit is -382.3 yuan/ton (+72.5), and PDH - based PP production profit is -224.0 yuan/ton (+40.0) [1]. - Import and Export: LL import profit is -41.5 yuan/ton (-0.1), PP import profit is -517.2 yuan/ton (-0.1), and PP export profit is 13.4 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1]. - Downstream Demand: The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 35.6% (+2.8%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 52.9% (+0.5%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.3% (+0.4%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 60.7% (+0.5%) [1]. Market Analysis - PE: After the holiday, the petrochemical inventory accumulates significantly. The supply pressure from new device production and weak cost - side support drive the downward trend. The supply increases due to the commissioning of a 500,000 - ton LDPE device, the resumption of previous maintenance devices, and concentrated arrival of imported resources. In October, the demand in the "Silver October" period has no obvious improvement, the procurement rhythm is slow, and the downstream follow - up is less than expected. The cost - side support weakens due to OPEC+ increasing oil production [2]. - PP: The supply is restricted by high propylene prices, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises decreases. In October, a 400,000 - ton/year device in Guangxi is expected to be put into production, but the return of some devices may be blocked. The demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season fails to meet expectations, the downstream demand recovers slowly, and the cost support is weak [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4]. - Inter - variety: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].