黑色建材日报(煤焦钢矿)：市场弱现实持续，钢材价格震荡运行-20251010

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] Core Views - The steel market continues to face weak realities, with steel prices oscillating. The terminal demand for building materials remains weak, and high inventories have not been alleviated. The fundamentals of finished products have not changed, and the high iron - water cost provides support. Attention should be paid to the impact of upcoming meetings on the market and subsequent changes in supply - demand patterns [1]. - The iron ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with prices fluctuating within a range. Macro - level strong policy expectations intermittently boost commodity prices, and the current overall valuation of iron ore is relatively high. Under the current situation of both supply and demand being strong, the price is expected to remain range - bound [3]. - The coking coal and coke market shows a cautious sentiment, with prices fluctuating. After the holiday, coking coal supply is gradually recovering, and the market remains in a loose pattern. Coke supply has slightly decreased due to weather - related logistics disruptions, and market demand has not improved significantly [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is in the off - season, with downstream daily consumption declining and coal prices showing a weak trend. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. Summaries by Related Content Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3096 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3286 yuan/ton. Rebar production was 203.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.62 million tons, and total inventory was 659.64 million tons, an increase of 57.39 million tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 323.29 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 million tons, and total inventory was 329.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29.92 million tons. The national building materials trading volume was 11.99 million tons [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: For building materials, the traditional peak season is more than half over, terminal demand is still weak, and high inventories have not been alleviated. For plates, after the holiday, prices are relatively stable, and consumption shows resilience. In the short - term, the fundamentals of finished products remain unchanged, and high iron - water costs provide support [1]. - Strategy: Sideways with a downward bias for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price rose slightly. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports increased. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. This period's hot - metal production decreased by 0.27 million tons week - on - week. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 98.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 397.46%. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot iron ore was 145.5 million tons (11 transactions), a week - on - week decrease of 40% (with the mine's transaction volume being 128.5 million tons) [3]. - Logic and View: Macro - level strong policy expectations intermittently boost commodity prices. Currently, the overall valuation of iron ore is relatively high, supply is relatively loose at high prices, and there is strong consumption resilience under high hot - metal production. The overall inventory is at a medium level. In the short - term, with both supply and demand being strong, the price will remain range - bound [3]. - Strategy: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, coking coal and coke showed an oscillating trend. As of the close, the coking coal 2601 contract rose 1.57%, and the coke 2601 contract rose 0.52%. For imported coal, customs clearance has resumed, traders' enthusiasm for quoting is average, prices fluctuate with the market, and the trading atmosphere is cold [5]. - Logic and View: For coking coal, after the holiday, supply is gradually recovering, and the market remains loose. In the short - term, demand is mainly for inventory consumption, and downstream enterprises' purchasing sentiment is cautious. For coke, affected by northern weather, logistics and transportation are blocked, supply has slightly decreased, and downstream steel mills' profits have declined, with purchases mainly for rigid demand, and market demand has not improved significantly [6]. - Strategy: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the origin, the prices of thermal coal in major production areas fluctuated slightly. It is the off - season, the number of coal - pulling trucks at stations and some mines has significantly decreased, and terminal procurement is strongly pressing down prices. In the port market, the sentiment is average, downstream buyers are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the transaction price center has slightly declined. For imported coal, prices are stable, trading activity has slightly decreased, and market participants have different views on the future market, with overall trading being cold [7]. - Demand and Logic: It is the off - season for thermal coal, downstream daily consumption has declined, and port inventories have accumulated. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. - Strategy: No strategy provided [8]