Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation [1] - Iron Ore: Fluctuation [1] - Coking Coal: Fluctuation [1] - Coke: Fluctuation [1] - Manganese Silicon: Weak - side fluctuation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Weak - side fluctuation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on October 10, 2025. It comprehensively considers factors such as supply, demand, price changes, and inventory levels of each commodity, and provides corresponding short - term trend forecasts for them [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Steel: After the holiday, the steel rebar futures market was volatile and slightly stronger. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. However, there was a significant inventory build - up during the holiday, and the inventory digestion pressure after the holiday was still large. Although the market had strong expectations for macro - policies and the price was at a low level, the short - term industry supply - demand situation still put pressure on prices, so it was expected to move in a narrow - range [1] - Iron Ore: The price of the main iron ore futures contract rose after the holiday. The supply side showed a decline in shipments, and the demand side had a slight decrease in molten iron production. With high demand supporting the price and multiple factors in a multi - empty situation, the ore price was expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1] - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market rose. On the supply side, coal mine safety inspections might be tightened after an accident. On the demand side, coke enterprises slowed down their raw coal purchases after the profit recovery. It was expected that the coking coal futures market would fluctuate widely in the short term [1] - Coke: The coke futures market rose. After the first round of price increases, the supply side was stable. On the demand side, steel mills' inventory decreased, and the finished product shipments were average, suppressing the replenishment demand. It was expected that the coke futures market would fluctuate widely in the short term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly. The cost support was relatively strong, but the supply was at a relatively high level, and the short - term fundamental upward driving force was limited. It was necessary to pay attention to the change of market sentiment [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The cost support weakened, and the supply was at a relatively high level. The demand side was about to start a new round of steel tenders, and the price center of tenders was expected to move down slightly. It was expected to run weakly and fluctuate in the short term [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread: For various commodities such as steel rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, the report provided the latest values and month - on - month changes of contract spreads (e.g., 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months, etc.) [4] - Basis: It presented the latest values and month - on - month changes of the basis of the main contracts of various commodities and the latest values and month - on - month changes of spot prices in different regions [4] - Profit and Spread: Information on the latest values and month - on - month changes of profit (such as steel rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and inter - commodity spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) was provided [4] 3. Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: It showed the closing price trends of the main contracts of steel rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through figures [6][7][10][15] - Main Contract Basis: The basis trends of the main contracts of various commodities from 2022 - 2026 were presented through figures [17][19][23][25] - Inter - period Contract Spread: The trends of inter - period contract spreads of various commodities (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) were shown through figures [27][32][33][37][39] - Inter - commodity Contract Spread: The trends of inter - commodity spreads of various main contracts (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc.) from 2020 to 2025 were presented through figures [43][45][47] - Steel Rebar Profit: The trends of disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the steel rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 were shown through figures [48][52] 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduced the information of the black research team members of Everbright Futures, including their positions, work experience, honors, and relevant qualification numbers [54][55]
黑色商品日报-20251010
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-10-10 05:21