有色商品日报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices rose and then fell, with LME copper approaching its historical high. The US government shutdown and delayed economic data have led to differences among Fed officials on whether to cut interest rates in October. LME, Comex, and domestic social copper inventories have increased, and downstream procurement is cautious at high prices. The impact of the Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia on global copper supply in Q4 2025 and 2026 is a fact, which is expected to support copper prices. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the price differences between Comex and LME copper and between domestic and foreign markets [1]. - Aluminum: After the holiday, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Alumina market news is scarce, and it continues to be in an oversupply situation. After the short - term price increase of electrolytic aluminum, the market has pinned its hopes on the "Silver October" for consumption. Pay attention to the post - holiday inventory - consumption trend, and beware of price corrections if the destocking is less than expected [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices rose. LME inventory increased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia has introduced a new policy on mining production quotas. Nickel ore operations are stable, but policy risks need to be watched. Stainless steel is under pressure, and the new energy industry chain is expected to see increased demand. Shanghai nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Macro factors and inventory increases have affected copper prices. The mine accident impact on supply is expected to support prices. It is recommended to go long on dips and monitor price differences [1]. - Aluminum: Post - holiday prices are slightly stronger. Alumina is in surplus, and electrolytic aluminum consumption hopes are on "Silver October". Monitor inventory - consumption trends [1][2]. - Nickel: Prices are affected by macro and policy factors. Nickel ore operations are stable, but policy risks exist. Stainless steel is under pressure, and new energy demand is expected to increase. Prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On October 9, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 85,720 yuan/ton, up 2,525 yuan from September 30. LME inventory decreased by 3,925 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead was 16,910 yuan/ton on October 9, up 30 yuan from September 30. LME inventory increased by 1,375 tons, and上期所 inventory decreased by 7,315 tons [3]. - Aluminum: On October 9, the Wuxi aluminum price was 20,980 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan from September 30. LME inventory decreased by 4,825 tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.7 million tons [4]. - Nickel: On October 9, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 124,825 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan from September 30. LME inventory increased by 5,580 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 42 tons [4]. - Zinc: On October 9, the main settlement price was 22,200 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from September 30. LME inventory remained unchanged, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.78 million tons [6]. - Tin: On October 9, the main settlement price was 285,070 yuan/ton, up 2.3% from September 30. LME inventory decreased by 115 tons, and上期所 inventory decreased by 130 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - LME Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - Social Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [49][50].