光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251010

Group 1: Research Views - Urea futures prices weakened on the first trading day after the holiday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,609 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.42%. The spot market continued to weaken, and the supply decreased slightly. Demand was weak, and inventories increased. The market sentiment is weak, and prices are likely to remain under pressure. Follow-up attention should be paid to device maintenance, environmental protection restrictions, export policies, and the results of the Indian tender [2]. - Soda ash futures prices oscillated weakly, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,250 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.73%. The spot manufacturer's quotes were basically stable, and the supply fluctuated within a limited range. Although the procurement demand increased, the supply exceeded demand. The market will continue to oscillate widely. Follow-up attention should be paid to macro and policy expectations, glass futures prices, cost disturbances, and environmental protection factors [2]. - Glass futures prices oscillated widely, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,218 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.98%. The spot market continued to pick up, demand recovered, and inventories increased. The spot market activity continued to increase after the holiday, and there are signs of a partial rebound in futures prices. However, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic, and follow-up trends require more positive factors. Follow-up attention should be paid to the progress of coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe, the sustainability of spot transactions, macro sentiment, and the overall trend of the commodity market [2]. Group 2: Market Information Urea - On October 9, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 7,017, a decrease of 152 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 21 [5]. - On October 9, the daily output of the urea industry was 194,900 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2,400 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.31%, a decrease of 3 percentage points from 86.31% in the same period last year [5]. - On October 9, the spot prices of small-grain urea in various regions in China decreased to varying degrees [5]. - As of October 9, the inventory of urea enterprises was 1.4439 million tons, an increase of 212,200 tons or 17.23% from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On October 9, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 7,108, a decrease of 225 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 2,763. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. - On October 9, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were reported [7]. - On October 9, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.60%, down from 89.14% on the previous working day [8]. - As of October 9, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 59,900 tons or 3.74% from before the holiday [9]. - On October 9, the average price of the float glass market was 1,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. The daily output of the industry was 161,300 tons, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - As of October 9, the inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.469 million weight boxes or 5.85% from the previous week, and an increase of 6.76% year-on-year. The inventory days were 26.7 days, an increase of 1.3 days from the previous week [9]. Group 3: Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, the basis of urea and soda ash, the trading volume and open interest of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, the price differences between different contracts of urea and soda ash, the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, the price differences between urea and methanol futures, and the price differences between glass and soda ash futures. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [11][18][19]. Group 4: Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [23]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won many honors [23]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has won relevant honors [23].