东海证券晨会纪要-20251010

Group 1 - The report highlights that during the National Day holiday, global stock markets mostly rose, with the Japanese stock market leading due to expectations of monetary and fiscal easing under the new leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party [5] - The report notes a seasonal rebound in domestic consumption, with a total of 809 billion CNY in tourism revenue during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, reflecting a year-on-year increase [27][28] - The manufacturing PMI for September showed a slight recovery to 49.8%, indicating a supply-driven market with production indices rising more than new orders [10][14] Group 2 - The report provides an analysis of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), noting a stable asset quality with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33% and a provision coverage ratio of 217.71% [19][20] - ICBC's total assets reached 52.32 trillion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 11.04%, while net profit for the first half of 2025 was 168.1 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.39% year-on-year [19][20] - The report anticipates that ICBC's net interest margin pressure will ease, projecting stable growth in revenue and net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 [25]