化工日报：国庆期间EG主港大幅累库-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The spot price of EG in the East China market decreased by -1.43% to 4214 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main EG contract decreased by -1.16% to 4158 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -63 US dollars/ton, with no week-on-week change; the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -305 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main EG ports in East China was 50.7 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.8 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.3 tons. From September 29th to October 8th, the total actual arrivals at the main ports were 15.4 tons, and the port inventory increased significantly. From October 9th to 12th, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China were 8 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.6 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. During the National Day holiday, there were many arrivals of foreign ships, and large ships from Canada and Saudi Arabia will arrive at the port to replenish supplies. On the demand side, the demand was slightly boosted by pre-holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The overall balance sheet of EG has a large pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and the inventory may bottom out and rebound [2]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, cautiously short and hedge at high prices. For inter - period trading, conduct an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605. There is no recommendation for cross - variety trading [3]. Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4214 yuan/ton (a change of -61 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of -1.43%), and the closing price of the main EG contract was 4158 yuan/ton (a change of -49 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of -1.16%). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -63 US dollars/ton (a week-on-week increase of 0 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -305 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on international price differences were provided in the text, only a figure (Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR) was mentioned [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Before the festival, the demand was slightly boosted by stocking, and the sales of filament improved significantly, but the increase in polyester load was limited. The sustainability of the demand recovery needs attention [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main EG ports in East China was 50.7 tons (a week-on-week increase of 9.8 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons (a week-on-week increase of 4.3 tons). From September 29th to October 8th, the total actual arrivals at the main ports were 15.4 tons, and the port inventory increased significantly. From October 9th to 12th, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China were 8 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.6 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable [1].