工业硅&多晶硅日报-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, industrial silicon and polysilicon showed a weak and volatile trend. For industrial silicon, the policy's impact on the market was limited, and the post - holiday inventory reduction pressure on silicon factories was significant. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach or conduct light - position short - term operations, and pay attention to the actual implementation of production - cut policies in the southwest region. For polysilicon, the market has fully priced in the policy expectations, and investors are advised to be vigilant against post - holiday correction risks, manage positions, and consider shorting at high prices [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research View - After the holiday on October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of industrial silicon closed at 8,640 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.29% and an increase in open interest by 2,165 lots to 177,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot was 9,580 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 235 yuan/ton. The main contract 2511 of polysilicon closed at 50,765 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.09% and a decrease in open interest by 2,372 lots to 84,987 lots. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon and the lowest deliverable grade both rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 1,700 yuan/ton [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract remained unchanged at 8,640 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 8,665 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and regions remained stable, except that the price of oxygen - containing 553 silicon in Tianjin Port decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,300 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon in Xinjiang decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,100 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 5 yuan to 235 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 209 to 50,774, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 12,035 tons to 250,330 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 595 yuan/ton to 50,765 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 580 yuan/ton to 50,800 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 580 yuan to 1,700 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 to 8,140, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 158,000 tons to 236,400 tons [4]. - Organic Silicon: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [4]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and solar modules [13][17][19]. Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, and weekly industry inventory), DMC, and polysilicon [23]. Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [29][31][37]. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in non - ferrous metals research [39][40].