Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel sector in the black building materials is "oscillating" [1] Core View - After the holiday, the first trading day saw the screw and coil steel oscillating to build a bottom, with a gap - up opening at night and continued gains. The steel market has both supply and demand decreasing and continuous inventory accumulation. The market expectations are divided, and the price is expected to oscillate and rebound but with insufficient upward momentum [1] Summary by Directory Market Review - After the holiday, the first trading day saw the screw and coil steel oscillating to build a bottom, and they opened higher with a gap at night and continued to close up [1] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 863,310 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,760 tons or 0.4%. The total inventory was 1.60072 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,860 tons or 8.7%. The weekly consumption was 751,430 tons, among which the building materials consumption decreased by 32.8% week - on - week and the plate consumption decreased by 7.8% week - on - week [1] - New York Fed President Williams clearly stated that he supports further interest rate cuts in 2025 to cope with the possible sharp slowdown risk in the labor market [1] - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged in September and gave a moderately optimistic assessment of the euro - zone economy, implying a high threshold for further policy easing [1] Market Logic - On the first day after the holiday, the spot prices of screw and coil steel had both increases and decreases, and the trading volume was average. The supply and demand of steel both decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Currently, the market expectations are divided, with half expecting an increase and half expecting a decrease. Attention should be paid to the demand in October [1] Trading Strategy - It is expected that the screw and coil steel will oscillate and rebound, but the upward momentum is insufficient. Short - term long positions can be held continuously with stop - loss orders set. The expected resistance level for rebar is 3230, and the support level is 3000. The resistance level for hot - rolled coils is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [1]
2025年10月10日星期五
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-10-10 05:51