化工日报：原料价格下跌，PF和PR加工费上涨-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [4] Core Viewpoints - The cost side shows that before the National Day, the strong oil price was mainly driven by geopolitics, with a weak fundamental situation. After the National Day, the slowdown in China's import demand and the increase in US exports, along with the increase in Middle - East exports, have led to an oversupply situation [1] - For PX, the PXN was $222/ton (a month - on - month increase of $3.50/ton). The PX load in China has recovered to a relatively high level, and with the restart of several overseas plants, the overall PX operation rate has increased. The postponed fourth - quarter maintenance plan and capacity expansion of some plants have put pressure on PXN. The downstream PTA plants have more maintenance plans, weakening the fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook [1] - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 63 yuan/ton (no month - on - month change), the PTA spot processing fee is 152 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 312 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 6 yuan/ton). The inventory accumulation rate has narrowed in October and November, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure in December [2] - In terms of demand, the polyester operation rate is 91.5% (a month - on - month increase of 1.2%). In late September, the weaving and texturing loads increased, and orders improved marginally. Before the National Day, the replenishment demand led to a significant increase in filament sales, and the polyester factory's product inventory decreased significantly [2] - For PF, the spot production profit is 251 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load has reached a high level, and the factory inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials [3] - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 507 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton). In the short term, the bottle - chip load remains stable, and the export order - taking and shipping performance are average. There is large supply - demand pressure under the upcoming commissioning of the new Fuhai plant [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine operation rate, and filament profit [49][51][60] PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [69][73][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [89][91][100]