10月债市：枕戈待旦

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The panic in the bond market in September has been largely released, and the official version of the redemption fee new rule is unlikely to be implemented in the short - term. The current fundamental environment remains weak, and the certainty of loose liquidity is relatively high. Without special unexpected events, the market's room for further adjustment is limited. However, for interest rates to break through the current trading range, the market needs to reach a new consensus on the weakening fundamentals forcing monetary easing. Given the possible further slowdown of economic data in Q4 and the potential restart of central bank bond purchases in October, this consensus may form in October [2][6]. - Since 2022, due to insufficient endogenous power, the economy has shown a pattern of short - term improvement after the implementation of stimulus policies and weakening again during the observation period. This pattern may continue until the real estate market clears. Future fiscal and monetary policies may need to work together to stabilize demand, and the low - interest - rate environment may persist for a long time [2][37]. - The central bank maintained a relatively loose attitude in September. In October, the exogenous disturbances to the capital market mainly come from the tax period and the large - scale maturity of policy tools. As long as the central bank's attitude remains unchanged, the impact of tool maturity is limited. There is still a possibility of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in Q4, and liquidity loosening may be the greatest certainty for the current bond market [2][3][49]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Domestic Holiday Travel Rebounds but Has Limited Impact on Consumption; Overseas Market Sees Coexistence of Risk - Aversion Sentiment and Soft - Landing Expectations - In September, economic data continued to decline. The manufacturing PMI in September rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line, with demand recovery still weak [7]. - During the holiday, domestic travel numbers increased, but the growth rate of travel spending was relatively slow, and the overall impact on consumption was uncertain. New home sales during the National Day holiday were weak, while second - hand home sales improved slightly compared to previous years. Port freight and container freight volume growth rates were generally stable [12]. - Overseas, the U.S. government shutdown during the National Day holiday increased risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a rise in gold prices. However, the U.S. stock market was not significantly affected, and the U.S. bond yields declined slightly. The co - rise of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities in the U.S. market reflects the combination of short - term risk - aversion sentiment and medium - term economic soft - landing expectations. The future direction of asset prices depends on the Fed's balance between the economy and inflation, which is difficult to determine in the short term [25][27]. 3.2 The Pattern of Fundamental Weakening During the Policy Observation Period May Persist; Future Fiscal and Monetary Policies Need to Collaborate to Stabilize Demand - Since 2022, the economic cycle pattern has changed. Although real estate sales have declined significantly, the debt accumulated by residents, developers, and urban investment platforms during the real estate up - cycle still exists. If housing prices do not turn upward, the adjustment of the asset - liability structure of relevant entities may still put pressure on short - term demand [28]. - From 2024Q4 to 2025Q1, the economy expanded due to fiscal policy and large - scale credit expansion. However, since Q2, economic momentum has gradually declined, and the anti - involution policy has also brought new pressure. To break this pattern before the real estate market clears, continuous fiscal stimulus to boost consumption may be required [34]. - Although policies have increasingly emphasized consumption, the current measures are relatively limited compared to previous large - scale investments. With the marginal weakening of the "trade - in" policy, consumption may face greater downward pressure in Q4. Future policies may maintain a "support without over - stimulation" tone, and the pattern of short - term improvement after policy implementation and subsequent weakening may continue [37]. 3.3 Liquidity Loosening May Be the Greatest Certainty for the Bond Market - In September, investors were more sensitive to the capital market and the central bank's operations. Although the central bank did not continuously increase net investment when capital prices rose, the average values of DR001 and DR007 in September were still slightly lower than 1.4% and 1.5%, indicating that the central bank maintained a relatively loose attitude, which may be related to exogenous disturbances and tool - positioning adjustments [38]. - This year, the central bank's policy tool investment has been at a historically high level, mainly to offset exogenous factors such as government deposits, central bank bond maturity, and resident cash withdrawals. Since Q3, the central bank has shifted to using longer - term tools, and may have relaxed control over short - term capital market fluctuations [40][41]. - In October, the exogenous disturbances to the capital market mainly come from the tax period and the large - scale maturity of policy tools. However, the reduction in government bond supply in October may ease the tax - period disturbances. There is still a possibility of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in Q4, and the central bank may need to observe the situation. The central values of DR001 and DR007 in October are expected to be slightly lower than 1.4% and 1.5%, with a higher downward risk [49]. 3.4 The Bond Market in October: Be Prepared - The adjustment of the bond market in September was mainly due to the panic of trading desks caused by concerns about institutional liabilities. The spreads of policy - financial bonds, credit bonds, and perpetual bonds widened significantly. However, the adjustment was not due to liquidity pressure but rather the panic of trading desks. The scale of institutions such as wealth management remained stable [51]. - During the selling process of trading desks, the net buying of allocation - oriented institutions such as insurance companies, large banks, and wealth management companies increased, stabilizing interest rates. The weak sentiment of non - bank institutions and the decline in their leverage willingness have released potential risks to some extent [54]. - Since a large amount of trading capital has a cost around 1.75% - 1.8%, the market may experience fluctuations during the recovery process. For interest rates to break through the current trading range, a new consensus on the weakening fundamentals forcing monetary easing is needed. It is recommended to maintain a certain level of leverage in October, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the core portfolio, retain some 10 - year treasury bond positions, and increase positions after clear signals. Short - term trading can also target the recovery of over - adjusted perpetual bonds, while the operation of ultra - long - term bonds needs to observe the trend of the equity market [57].