航运日报：巴以和谈消息扰动远月，马士基发布11月份涨价函-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has an impact on the shipping market. Hamas' statement about a cease - fire agreement in Gaza war and potential prisoner exchanges affects market sentiment. The 10 - month contract's valuation is becoming clearer, with uncertainty in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the actual implementation of price increases in November, and the overall strategy is to go short on the 10 - month contract and expect the 12 - month contract to be oscillating strongly [3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Online Quotations: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price trends and price increase announcements. For example, HPL and Maersk have issued price increase letters, and the prices of various routes from Shanghai to Rotterdam have shown an upward trend to varying degrees [1][2]. - Geopolitical End: Hamas said it had reached an agreement to end the Gaza war, ensure Israel's withdrawal, and exchange hostages and prisoners [3]. - Dynamic Supply: The weekly average container ship capacity from China to European base ports varies by month. In October, the remaining three - week average capacity is 291,100 TEU, in November it is 304,000 TEU, and in December it is 292,500 TEU. There are also empty sailings and TBNs in November and December [3]. 2. Contract Analysis - October Contract: The valuation of the October contract is gradually clear. The current freight rate center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1400/FEU. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. If the price increases by $500/FEU in the last week, the final delivery settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately $1400/1500/1900/FEU, equivalent to about 1150 - 1200 points on the SCFIS; if the price increase fails, the final delivery settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [4]. - December Contract: The price increase letter for the November contract is expected to be launched soon. The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, mainly the actual implementation of price increases in November. The shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates at a high level for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. The current weak demand in the US line may affect the European line if ships are transferred. The trading rhythm of the 12 - month contract is to first trade the price increase expectation, then the actual implementation, and repeat this process until delivery [5]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Go short on the 10 - month contract and expect the 12 - month contract to be oscillating strongly. - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [8]. 4. Data Information - Futures and Spot Prices: As of October 9, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 67,360 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 78,064 lots. The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on September 26 is $971/TEU, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on October 6 is 1046.50 points [7]. - Container Ship Capacity: As of October 6, 2025, 206 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.6494 million TEU. Among them, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 964,000 TEU; 9 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 194,840 TEU [7].