新能源及有色金属日报：现货价格持稳，工业硅多晶硅震荡运行-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of industrial silicon remains stable, and the inventory has increased on a weekly basis. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity reduction, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure and weak price transmission downstream. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is suitable for long - term low - level layout [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,650 yuan/ton and closed at 8,640 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.29%) from the previous settlement. The main contract held 176,563 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,774, a decrease of 209 from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon and 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in other regions were slightly stable [1]. - As of October 9, the total social inventory of industrial silicon was 545,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from before the National Day. The ordinary social warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 120,000 tons, and the social delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 425,000 tons [1]. - The price of silicone DMC was stable at 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC monomer production enterprises' operating rate was about 71%, and most enterprises had pre - sold orders. The stable raw material cost provided strong cost support, and the monomer factories were willing to hold prices [2]. Strategy - In the short term, conduct range operations. For the dry - season contracts, consider going long at low prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 fluctuated widely, opening at 51,280 yuan/ton and closing at 50,765 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 84,987 lots (87,359 the previous day), and the trading volume was 201,311 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.10 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 24.00 (a 6.19% increase), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.78GW (a 3.39% increase). The weekly polysilicon output was 31,000 tons (-0.10% change), and the silicon wafer output was 12.83GW (-6.89% change) [4][5]. - The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers remained unchanged. The prices of battery cells and components also remained stable [5][6]. - During the National Day, the polysilicon market transactions were light, and there was obvious resistance to high - priced resources. The polysilicon output in October exceeded expectations and was expected to increase by 3,000 - 5,000 tons month - on - month [5]. Strategy - In the short term, conduct range operations, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, it is suitable to go long at low prices [7].