聚酯数据日报-20251010

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The polyester market is facing a complex situation. PTA shows weak performance due to the weak crude oil market, reduced domestic production, and unburgeoned demand. MEG prices are under pressure from domestic device production, while the port inventory remains low. The polyester industry is expected to operate weakly after the holiday season [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price dropped from 479.7 yuan/barrel on September 30, 2025, to 471.0 yuan/barrel on October 9, 2025, a decrease of 8.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA: PTA - SC spread increased by 53.22 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio rose by 0.0214. PTA主力期价 decreased by 10.0 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped by 35.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 59.7 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 39.7 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单 quantity increased by 2604 [2]. - PX: CFR China PX price increased by 5, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 7 [2]. - MEG: MEG主力期价 decreased by 49.0 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha spread increased by 7.8 yuan/ton, and the MEG内盘 price decreased by 51.0 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain and Operation - Operation Rate: PX operation rate remained unchanged at 85.57%. PTA operation rate decreased by 2.97% to 75.70%, MEG operation rate increased by 1.83% to 64.05%, and polyester load increased by 0.58% to 89.38% [2]. - Polyester Filament: POY150D/48F price decreased by 55.0, POY cash flow decreased by 8.0. FDY150D/96F price decreased by 35.0, FDY cash flow increased by 12.0. DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged, and DTY cash flow increased by 47.0. The long - filament sales rate increased by 23% to 57% [2]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased by 5, and the staple - fiber cash flow increased by 42.0. The staple - fiber sales rate decreased by 2% to 60% [2]. - Polyester Chip: Semi - bright chip price decreased by 35.0, chip cash flow increased by 12.0, and the chip sales rate increased by 17% to 72% [2]. Market Trends and Recommendations - PTA: During the National Day holiday, the crude oil price was weak, the PX market had few transactions, and the polyester downstream procurement was stagnant. A new cracking ethylene device in Shandong was put into operation, and domestic PTA production decreased. Due to the weak crude oil, PTA performance was weak [2]. - MEG: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China remained low, the arrival volume was limited, and the import from overseas markets was expected to decline. The domestic device production put pressure on the price. The polyester inventory was in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased. After the holiday, the polyester market was expected to operate weakly [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China is restarting, which stopped around September 23, and another 1.1 - million - ton PTA device increased its load after operating at a low load last week [2].