黑色金属数据日报-20251010

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel, sentiment and the market are temporarily stable. Near - term industrial directional drivers are unclear, and the focus is on the release intensity of demand and marginal changes in supply - demand [3]. - For iron ore, the fundamentals have no contradictions for now. The short - term supply is not significantly affected, and over - supply may occur in the 4th quarter if there is no production cut [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the market risk preference is good, and the short - term adjustment needs to be verified by post - holiday industrial data. In the medium - to - long term, the policy impact on the supply side is expected to be positive [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, they mainly fluctuate following the sector in the short term, and there are still concerns in the medium term [3]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Changes: - On October 9, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3159 yuan/ton with a 0.48% increase, HC2605 at 3293 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase, etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3096 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase, HC2601 at 3286 yuan/ton with a 0.37% increase [1]. - The cross - month spreads, such as RB2601 - 2605 at - 63 yuan/ton on October 9, also had corresponding changes [1]. - Spreads, ratios, and profits like the coil - to - rebar spread was 190 yuan/ton on October 9, and the rebar's on - paper profit was - 93.08 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices and Changes: - On October 9, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase, etc. [1]. - The basis, such as the HC主力 basis was 74 yuan/ton on October 9, also had corresponding changes [1]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - Steel: Seasonally, post - holiday first - phase industrial data is usually poor but will recover. Near - term industrial drivers are unclear, and future focus is on demand release and supply - demand changes [3]. - Iron Ore: The holiday increase was due to a rumor. Supply data is stable in the short term, and over - supply may occur in the 4th quarter if there is no production cut [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot market has mixed performance, and the futures market rebounded. The short - term adjustment needs verification, and the medium - to - long - term policy impact on supply is positive [3]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: They mainly follow the sector in the short term. There are supply - demand and inventory issues, and there are concerns in the medium term [3]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions - For steel, suggest to wait and see on the single - side, and can participate in the reverse spread or wait in the basis dimension [3]. - For iron ore, suggest to wait and see [3]. - For coking coal and coke, suggest to wait and see on the single - side [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, suggest to short on rallies [3].