期货市场交易指引2025年10月10日-20251010

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish in the medium to long term for stock indices; hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar; buy on dips for glass [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Hold long positions on dips for copper; wait for a pullback and then go long for aluminum; wait and see or go short on rallies for nickel; buy on dips for tin, gold; range trading for silver [1][12][14] - Energy Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to oscillate; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins; bearish on 01 contract for soda ash [1][23][25][28] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton, cotton yarn and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate [1][37][38] - Agricultural and Animal Husbandry: Go short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide - range oscillation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; oscillate with an upward bias for oils [1][41][43][50] Core Views - A - share market is expected to rise with the support of policies, Fed rate - cut expectations and RMB appreciation. Treasury bond market needs to wait for the return of allocation forces [5] - Black building materials market is affected by factors such as coal production, imports and demand. Glass may be supported by real - estate demand in October [7][8][10] - Non - ferrous metals market is influenced by supply disruptions, production cuts, and demand trends. Copper and tin prices are likely to be supported by supply shortages [12][14][19] - Energy chemicals market is facing challenges such as high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. PVC and other products are expected to oscillate [24][26][28] - Cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand changes and seasonal factors. Cotton and PTA prices may be under pressure [37][38] - Agricultural and animal husbandry market is influenced by supply - demand imbalances and policy factors. Pig and egg prices are expected to be weak in the short term [41][43] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Stock Indices: A - share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3900. The market is expected to rise in the medium term due to policies, Fed rate - cut expectations and RMB appreciation. Suggest to buy on dips [5] - Treasury Bonds: Market volatility was large before the holiday. Whether the long - end and ultra - long - end interest rates can stabilize depends on the return of allocation forces. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black Building Materials - Double - Coking: During the National Day, some coal mines in Shanxi had short - term production cuts, and Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase after the holiday. Coke's first - round price increase was implemented, but the second - round failed. The market is expected to oscillate [7][8] - Rebar: Futures prices were oscillating. The current valuation is low, but the demand is still weak. The price is expected to be weak first and then strong in October. Suggest to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - Glass: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. The real - estate demand in October may support the price weakly. Suggest to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, paying attention to the support at 1190 - 1200 for the 2601 contract [10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Supply was disrupted due to a mine accident in Indonesia, and domestic production is expected to decline. The demand may improve in October. With low inventory, the price is expected to remain high. Suggest to hold long positions on dips [12][13] - Aluminum: Alumina supply is relatively loose, and electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand is in the peak season. Suggest to hold long positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [14] - Nickel: The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings uncertainty to the supply. The medium - long - term supply is in surplus. Suggest to wait and see or go short on rallies [19] - Tin: Supply is tight due to mine closures in Indonesia. The semiconductor industry is recovering. The price is expected to be supported. Suggest to build long positions on dips [19] - Silver and Gold: Affected by factors such as delayed non - farm data and Fed rate - cut expectations, the prices are expected to continue the upward trend. Suggest to hold existing long positions and build new long positions on dips after the holiday [22] Energy Chemicals - PVC: Supply is high, demand is weak, and exports are uncertain. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on 4700 - 4900 [24] - Caustic Soda: The increase in warehouse receipts pressured the market. The overall expectation is to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on 2380 - 2530 [26] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on 6700 - 6900 [28] - Rubber: The market is affected by supply and demand factors. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, focusing on the support at 15500 [30] - Urea: Supply increased, agricultural demand was scattered, and the enterprise inventory continued to accumulate. The market is expected to be weak in the short term [32] - Methanol: Supply recovered, the demand for methanol - to - olefins increased, and the inventory decreased. The short - term market is expected to be weak [33] - Polyolefins: Supply pressure was relieved during the maintenance season, but the demand was still weak. The PE and PP contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the support at 7000 and 6700 respectively [34] - Soda Ash: Supply is abundant, demand is flat, and the upstream may face inventory accumulation pressure after the holiday. Adopt a bearish strategy for the 01 contract [36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Global cotton supply and demand are expected to increase, but the long - term pressure is still large. Maintain a bearish view in the medium term [37] - PTA: Crude oil prices declined, and PTA inventory increased. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 4500 - 4750 [38] - Apples: Due to continuous rain, the red fruit supply was delayed. The current price reference is limited. Pay attention to the price performance after the increase in supply [39] - Jujubes: The market purchase and sales were flat during the holiday. The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested. Pay attention to the purchase price [40] Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: Supply increased, demand was limited, and the price continued to decline. The short - term is expected to be weak, and the long - term supply before next year's first half will be high. Suggest to go short on 11, 01, 03, 05 contracts and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long 05 and short 03 [41][43] - Eggs: Demand decreased after the holiday, and the price is expected to be weak. Suggest to partially close short positions for the 11 contract and wait for the spot price guidance; wait and see for the 12 and 01 contracts and go short on rallies [44] - Corn: New grain is about to be listed, and the price is under seasonal pressure. The long - term supply and demand are expected to be stable and weak. Suggest to go short on rallies for the 11 contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [46] - Soybean Meal: US soybeans are under harvest pressure, and domestic supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the support of the M2601 contract at 2900 - 2930 [49] - Oils: The price is expected to rise slightly after the holiday, following the external market. Suggest to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm and rapeseed oils and temporarily stop the positive arbitrage strategy for the rapeseed - soybean oil price difference [56]