Economic Overview - The current U.S. economy exhibits a unique combination of "strong consumption + weak labor market," attributed to companies absorbing tariff impacts without significant price increases, stabilizing consumer purchasing power[1] - In contrast to 2021, when companies could raise prices to offset costs due to high demand and inflation expectations, 2025 has seen weakened pricing power, leading to reduced investment and hiring[1] Market Trends - Overall, the U.S. economy shows relative resilience, with moderate expansion, while Europe remains weak and Japan's new leadership hints at a more accommodative policy, suggesting a potential stabilization and rebound in the dollar index[2] - The dollar index increased by 1.07% during the holiday period, influenced by expectations of a slower pace of interest rate hikes in Japan[23] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 were reported at 218,000, while continuing claims stood at 1.926 million, indicating a downward trend in unemployment claims[12] - The ISM services PMI for September was reported at 50, below the expected 51.7, while the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.1, reflecting mixed signals in the labor market[12] Risks and Challenges - There is a risk that U.S. companies may pass significant cost pressures onto consumers, potentially leading to rising inflation and weakened consumption[3] - The new Japanese government under Kishi may face challenges in policy direction due to congressional divisions, which could undermine the logic of dollar stabilization[3] Commodity Market Performance - During the holiday period, WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.29%, while Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.15%[26] - Copper prices surged by 4.90%, and gold prices rose by 5.09%, surpassing the $4,000 mark, indicating strong demand in the commodities market[26]
海外宏观周报：美国消费与就业分化，美元短期企稳-20251010
China Post Securities·2025-10-10 07:12